As I Please

What is new since our previous blog appeared on Holdenforth in early May?

Not much by the frenetic standards of today. That is, until a few days ago.

During the morning of Wednesday, Wednesday, May 22, Paula Vennells, ex CEO of the Post Office was being grilled by the very capable barrister Justin Beer about what she had done and not done, what she had known and what she had not known during her well rewarded time as CEO of the Post Office.

Her performance was pitiful. Holdenforth suspects that Ms Vennells had been briefed by Mr Micawber, advisor to David Copperfield.

“My Dear Sir,

Circumstances beyond my individual control have, for a considerable lapse of time, effected a severance of that intimacy which, in the limited opportunities conceded to me in in the midst of my professional duties, of contemplating the scenes and events of the past, tinged by the prismatic hues of memory ….”

Mr Micawber explaining how the root causes of his many personal problems were outside of his control.

Sadly, for Vennells, lawyer Beer was able to jog her evasive memory with the chapter and verse of the relevant documents.

After lunch – we had a mega combination of drama and farce as news leaked out that Mr Sunak was about to call an early general election.

His announcement that the election was to be held on July 4 was made to a moist and resentful audience in Downing Street – these days know to insiders and indeed some outsiders – as “Bullshit Boulevard”.

No one got a more thorough soaking than the PM – after his announcement he was ushered inside to dry out.

A suitably absurd end for his premiership.

Holdenforth, like almost every other observer, was wrong footed by the announcement.

Seasoned observers were unable to agree on the decision firmly announced by Mr Sunak. Lord Finkelstein though it sensible to make a run for it now because the going was unlikely to improve. Conversely, Matthew Parris argued that Mr S should have adopted a Micawber approach hoping that something would turn up.

Dear Holdenforth readers – what do you think?

In these confused circumstances let us open our blog with a few extracts from our previous mission statements.

These basic preferences will help us to feel at home.

• The BBC – the case for privatisation grows stronger on a daily basis. Holdenforth would cancel the Reith Lectures and replace them with what? What about The Lineker diatribes?
• The transgender sector – no offence meant here but our core case remains that “If my aunt had balls she would be my uncle but she didn’t and she wasn’t.”
• Long live the Remain cause.
• The decline of the British manager. This sector is anxious to collect the rewards of the job – and equally anxious to avoid doing any work thus severing the link between the 2 key components.  

 What else do we have to say?

“The 17 highest paying law firms in the square mile for newly qualified solicitors are American – two of these firms recent boosted their starting salaries to £150k”
Extract from The Times, May 23

Holdenforth was not surprised by the emergence of this newly affluent sector in society. He was merely envious. He suspects that there will be some re-alignment of loyalties as these latter day successors to F.E. Smith and George Carman flourish in our litigation prone society.

Kretinsky

This well-heeled Czech billionaire is said by his PR team to wish to acquire the Royal Mail business with no motive other than to ensure that the great British Public gets its mail on time at a price that it can afford.

Is that it?

Well – Up to a point Lord Copper.

“PM must make it clear Royal Mail and King’s Head are not for sale”
Headline above Alex Brummer’s column, Daily Mail – May 16

That’s more like it.

Holdenforth wonders – why might a Czech robber baron get richer still in the UK?

We suspect that Mr Kretinsky is anxious to expand his increasingly opaque business activities in the UK for all the usual reasons – because the UK is a safe haven for the shady shaky dodgy international affluent sector –  for this group the streets of London are indeed  paved with gold.

Meanwhile, the Mail also reported (May 28^th) that the “Czech Sphinx” was planning to cut up to 1,000 Royal Mail jobs. Understandably, the Communication Workers Union is anxious about job losses should Kretinsky take control.

Watch this space – The parties competing to win the coming election will be asked by Ms Kuenssberg – should Kretinsky be allowed to acquire this hallowed British Institution?

Holdenforth would go further and ask Sir Keir Starmer to take Royal Mail back to where it belongs – the public sector.

Holdenforth also believes that our concerns about Kretinsky apply to most of those who figure in the recent Sunday Times rich list.

A modest Holdenforth proposal – we urge some enterprising media organisation to reproduce the list of the affluent, but their version would mirror the practice deployed for those apprehended by the law for some reason or other – front and side unsmiling angry mug shots for this C3 collection of sharp practitioners.

Rejected Politicians                                                                                                               

“The typical American law maker is willing to embrace any issue, however idiotic, that will get him votes, and he is willing to sacrifice any principle, however sound, that will lose them for him… they are in the position of the chorus girl who, in order to get her humble job, has had to admit the manager to her person…”
H.L. Mencken, Notes on Democracy

Voters should keep an eye on the methods adopted by the rebuffed here in the UK to seek to return to the fray, in other words to gain admittance to the job creation scheme to protect those rejected in the various elections.

Holdenforth endorses the Mencken view of the Politician in a Democracy.

It has not been an edifying experience to observe politicians, rejected in one contest by the voters, scouring our democracy to seek other opportunities in the vast and expanding framework of our various institutions.

At what point might the number of jobs in this sector exceed the number of voters?

Let us go from the general to the particular.

The Welsh Assembly Government – now re-titled the Senedd – is reported to be seeking to increase the number of members from 60 to 90. A wonderful example of a job creation scheme.

Time was when the political work load in Wales was carried out by two elected Westminster Members of Parliament.

Has the political workload in Wales really mushroomed to require this planned increase?

No – it has not. It simply and vividly illustrates the desire of the political class in Wales as it does everywhere to suckle on the teat of public service.

We repeat – At what point might the number of jobs in this sector exceed the number of voters?

As I write – Mr Vaughn Gething, the recently appointed First Minister of The Senedd is under scrutiny because of alleged dubious arrangements made with a local environmental contractor.

Might Gething have to jump ship before he is required to walk the plank? He will imminently face a vote of no confidence.

Holdenforth hopes that he does abandon ship.

Democracy as it operates in the UK

In an earlier blog Holdenforth noted that on a busy day The House of Lords resembles an old folks’ home and, on a quiet day, a morgue.

Can the very existence of this venerable creaking institution be reconciled with any version of democracy?

No – it can’t.

The unseemly return to public life of Mr David – now Lord – Cameron was yet another nail in its creaking coffin.

The actions of Mr Cameron following his defeat in the Brexit referendum were dubious – see the Greensill affair.

Mr Sunak was evidently prepared to overlook these transgressions and in one speedy manoeuvre Cameron was promoted to Foreign Secretary and membership of the Lords.  We rest our case.

Holdenforth has quoted the following sentence in previous blogs and we will be quoting it in future blogs

“The privatisation of near monopolies is about as irrelevant as (and sometimes worse than) were the Labour Party’s proposals for further nationalisation in the 1970s and early 1980s.
“A Life at the Centre” the autobiography of Roy Jenkins

Holdenforth commends this policy to Sir Keir Starmer.

Privatised near monopolies to be speedily returned to the public sector include the Rail Sector and The Water Sector

A word about Nigel Farage

Holdenforth understands why Mr Farage has opted not to seek almost certain defeat in the coming election were he to stand as a candidate in a UK constituency.

He has sensibly opted to wield his formidable influence across not only the whole of the Disunited Kingdom scene but also to use his talents to influence the intriguing developing battle between the two aged candidates in the USA Presidential election.

We at Holdenforth find ourselves with more conflicting opinions about Mr Farage than any other prominent figure in British political life.

We were and remain strongly opposed to his very effective contribution to the Brexit victory during the In/Out referendum.

We readily concede that he has made very effective and positive contributions to a series of major scandals notably the de-banking conspiracy.

He has also made telling criticisms of the absurd attempts by HMG /Mr Sunak to deliver an effective solution to the vexed problem of illegal immigration.

We live in turbulent times that are set to become even more turbulent. Holdenforth believes that Mr Farage will continue to make effective interventions.

Whither the NHS?

In my role as an aged blogger who has considerable experience of the NHS from the inside – I have two observations to make on this once rightly revered institution.

“The language of priorities is the religion of socialism”
Quote from Nye Bevan

Martha’s Rule requires that patients unhappy with an initial diagnosis can demand a second opinion.

Holdenforth suggests that before this rule comes into force – provision be made for ALL patients to be entitled to a first opinion.

The barriers in place to limit access to this initial appointment verge on the insurmountable.

Holdenforth has noted that there is a powerful medical lobby opposed to the idea of assisted dying.

We are strongly in favour of enabling those wishing to make an early exit from this vale of tears should be allowed to do so.

On a possibly sour note we suggest that a significant number of those in the medical profession are already arranging assisted dying for many whether those involved want this outcome or not.

The Chilcot model governing independent public enquiries.

Holdenforth would like to some urgency injected such enquiries. We do not doubt the transparency or the independence but how about speeding things up.

Chilcot set the standard when he chaired the Iraq enquiry: we note, for example, that the enquiry into the Grenfell Tower fire is unlikely to report until 2026.

The Mail reported in February that a Tory MP was “in the clear” after a rape enquiry which had taken four years to complete. As Lord Moylan said at the time, “The real scandal here is why the Met Police is not held to account for needing 21 months to investigate this…”

Holdenforth wants to see an end to the Chilcot practice of painfully protracted enquires., and suggests that no enquiry need take longer than 3 months to come to decisions and recommendations.

Instead we urge the adoption of the approach of Mr Churchill in WW 2 – “action this day.”

A modest proposal

Holdenforth gathers that there are in our midst many thousands of octogenarians who – for a variety of reasons – are unable to access the required level of support from the caring sector.

We also gather that there are in our midst many thousands from the portly sector who struggle to lose weight by time honoured means and resort to surgery to achieve trimmer figures.

Holdenforth can confirm from personal experience that if those from the portly sector were to provide for the needs of  old timers in need of care  on a 24/7 basis for say 3 months – the pounds surplus to requirements would be shed. 

Prospects for World War Three

“Round about 1890 England had become sick of peace, retrenchment and reform; the craving for violence which recurs after every long period of peace was beginning to be felt”
From “Progress of a Biographer” by Hugh Kingsmill

Holdenforth is anxious about the current preference for international violence in some sectors.

Thus far the preference is limited to providing the means for others to fight and die – peace has been the norm in the UK since the end of WW2.

Crime and Punishment – The water polluters

Holdenforth ponders the appropriateness of sentencing senior managers in the privatised water sector to a spell in prison where slopping out was part of the routine.

Those so incarcerated would experience what millions of their customers have experienced and continue to experience.

Back to Vennells

“As we all know, most computer projects ever launched have been late and over budget. To put the matter in simpler terms most computer projects fail. Computer projects in the public sector fail spectacularly.  What more evidence do we need?”
From “A Cushy Number” by John Holden in 2003

Don’t say that you were not warned.

“80 detectives to work on criminal probe into top Post Office chiefs”
Daily Mail headline May 28

Holdenforth is very anxious to see justice meted out following the painfully protracted Sir Wyn Williams enquiry.

But – are detectives the ones to carry out this probe. Holdenforth thinks not!

The conflict in Gaza   

We have previously noted the intense war between the rival propaganda machines operated by Israel and by Palestine. The mendacious work of these machines as they ransack the globe for support is of considerable significance because the propaganda machine operated by Israel is possibly the most effective in the world. This weapon has been and remains a formidable weapon in the Israeli war machine.

Holdenforth has been keeping an eye on the scoreboard as the conflict in Gaza has continued.

The casualties arising from the conflict have not been distributed evenly between The Israelis and the Palestinians – Palestinian fatalities, mostly civilians, are reported as being in excess of 30,000.

Holdenforth has also noted that support for the Israeli cause globally has steadily diminished as the number of deaths on the scoreboard has risen at a daily rate of 200.

Meanwhile, we have heard reports from the USA about the current wave of student unrest. This unrest is spreading to the UK and elsewhere in Europe. This concern is understandable in the context of the number of deaths on the scoreboard in Gaza.

As I Please

Holdenforth is on the mend – or so he has been informed by the NHS sector.

On the debit side – we have been receiving e mails from the Grim Reaper to indicate that our time is up.

In this blog we will derive inspiration from the courage of George Orwell as he worked in very difficult conditions towards the end of his life to complete 1984 in 1948.

More on the debit side – Holdenforth aka John Holden disagrees with almost everybody about almost everything – not a promising start.

What do you expect from a grumbling grousing grizzling griping grouchy octogenarian? 

Now – where had we got to – lots of issues – old and new – queuing up to be considered

A few easy old ones to get our show back on the road.

The BBC – privatise it!

The commendable policies of John Reith have long been abandoned.

The mission statement of today’s BBC is:-“There is no business like show business”. So be it. (Editor’s note: Strictly speaking the BBC’s mission statement is “to act in the public interest, serving all audiences through the provision of impartial, high-quality and distinctive output and services which inform, educate and entertain.)

The controversial comedian, Bernard Manning, argued that his control of the microphone during his stage appearances ensured that he was always in control of the proceedings.

This principle has been adopted by those on the wider stage at the BBC.  

The Holdenforth bollocks section

We have said this before and will probably say it again.

“If my aunt had bollocks, she would be my uncle but she didn’t and she wasn’t” – what could be clearer?

• Question – “Why does a dog lick its balls?”
• Answer  – provided by Jasper Carrott – “ because it can”
• Question – “why do the rich and powerful loot our scanty national resources?” 
• Answer – “because they can”
• Question – “when are the masses going to make a stand on these abuses?”
• Answer – “you tell me!

Any other useful deployments of the term?

How might the public at large sum up the performance of recent conservative governments?

How about – “They have made a bollocks of the job?”

 Any others?  One celebrity was said to have eyes bulging like a bulldog’s bollocks, but this was deemed abrasive by some.

Meanwhile, a diffident but simple suggestion regarding the LGBT sector:

In muted tones – Holdenforth begs those in the sector to do more of whatever it is that they do and rather less bawling in the streets about it.

Consider the consequences if the practice of publicly flaunting sexual preferences were to become universal.

There would be huge numbers of Steady Eddies – who like a bit now & again.

Possibly a good turnout of the Portnoy sector.

Let’s leave it at that and move on. 

The inverse content rule – Holdenforth asserts that as a general rule – the more fatuous the message the more raucous the proclamation as to its validity.

The small boats issue

As I write the political struggle between the House of Lords and the House of Commons on the Rwanda policy of HMG has been brought to a conclusion of sorts.

The numbers being quoted suggest that the demand for sanctuary in the UK is considerably greater than the ability of those in charge in Rwanda to cope.

What will the outcome be?

Holdenforth would like to suggest a rethink of the core issues.

Everyone – and that includes you and Holdenforth – will understandably constantly seek to achieve a better life for themselves and their families. So – how do nations and groups of nations reconcile the claims and wishes of the home population with  the claims of their would be neighbours?

Completely open borders – a bit like now really – or effective controls effectively managed.  

Holdenforth argues that the latter option will minimise the damage to long term wider social stability.

One final point here – given the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East in general and in Gaza in particular – what are the prospects of more than a million refugees from Gaza coming to the UK in large boats to escape their fate were they to remain in Gaza?

A word on The House of Lords – its performance and prospects

In an earlier blog Holdenforth noted that on a busy day it resembles an old folks’ home and, on a quiet day, a morgue.

Can the very existence of this venerable creaking institution be reconciled with any version of democracy?

No – it can’t.

It was bad enough before the squalid hasty elevation of Mr -Now Lord – Cameron to its ranks.

Compensation for past crimes

In recent months Holdenforth has gathered that there are several groups clamouring for compensation for the abuses endured by their ancestors down the centuries. These groups include descendants of slaves in The West Indies and across Africa.

The descendants of the Trevelyans are said to be inundated with claims.

Holdenforth would like to join this queue. My ancestors in Ireland were appallingly treated by Sir Charles Trevelyan in the 1840s.

In his essay “Genocide” the historian AJP Taylor wrote that “nearly 2 million Irish people died of starvation and fever within five years; another million fled bearing disease to Liverpool and the New World”

The Trevelyans inflicted  appalling additional cruelty on some of the Irish victims. The poignant song – “The fields of Athenry” – memorably sung by Paddy Reilly, has acquired the status of an anthem because  Irishmen “who stole Trevelyan’s that the young might see the morn”  were transported to the other side of the world.

My maternal great grandparents were among those who moved from Ireland to England to escape the famine.

Holdenforth aka John Holden would like to register a claim to be compensated.

Global Conflicts

Holdenforth detects a pattern of sorts in the various actual and possible global conflicts:

The prospects for Gaza:

In a previous blog we noted “the non-stop raucous resolute attack by Netanyahu on Hamas but we note also that he is strangely mute on the Zionist activities of the group which pioneered terrorism in the region -Irgun back in late 1940s.”

Holdenforth has been keeping an eye on the scoreboard as the conflict in Gaza has continued.

The casualties arising from the conflict have not been distributed evenly between The Israelis and the Palestinians – Palestinian fatalities, mostly civilians, are reported as being in excess of 30,000.

Holdenforth has also noted that support for the Israeli cause globally has steadily diminished as the number of deaths on the scoreboard has risen at a daily rate of 200.

The prospects for Ukraine

The situation and prospects here are broadly similar to those in Gaza – the ability of The Ukraine to continue the war with Russia is thought to be critically dependent upon the support of its paymasters in THE WEST.

And some in the WEST are reported as being uneasy about throwing good money after bad.

Mr Putin does not appear to be about to throw in the towel in this interminably protracted war.  

The latest word from the USA is that Mr Biden has put his money where his somewhat erratic mouth is and that he has promised that the USA WILL provide sufficient support to enable Mr Zelensky and Mr Netanyahu to fight on. For good measure Mr Biden warned China not to seek the return of Taiwan. 

The above points taken together promise a lucrative future for arms suppliers and an ongoing mixture of blood, toil, sweat and tears for those called upon to do the actual fighting.

In short, the prospects for WW3 sooner rather than later look ominous. 

Hooray for Nigel!

Holdenforth was startled a week or so ago by a very rum episode triggered by the intervention of a minor official in Brussels to abort a perfectly reasonable conservative conference.

Once again Nigel Farage was and remains the  hero of the hour – and rightly so.

It has also been reported that there is still some unfinished business regarding the debanking scandal and here Farage is absolutely right to get after those responsible.

On the debit side Farage may be slightly anxious about the fate of his trans-Atlantic hero, ex- President Trump. Holdenforth concedes that Mr Trump may find it difficult to campaign for the Presidency from the inside of a prison cell.

In conclusion

Once again, we have run out of time and energy.

A trailer for our next blog:

• The Woke sector – Holdenforth needs to find out exactly what the Wokers want before pontificating.
• The decline of the British Manager- we plan to consider how this sector has contrived to shrug off the work whilst continuing to harvest the benefits.
• Smoking – A small item on this topic – Smoking triggered a few identity problems in our house in my early years. My parents and many siblings were all smokers – I couldn’t see them for smoke!
• Welsh affairs- How will the return to normality on the roads change things. I have a slightly embarrassing interest to declare – I have attended TWO speed awareness courses.

As I Please

A gloomy preamble to a gloomy blog

“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity …

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the second coming is at hand…
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
From “The Second Coming” by WB Yeats

Background notes to this blog

There has been no letup in the intensity of the political struggles within the UK political parties in recent weeks. The pundits ponder interminably in print and on the airwaves about which event is more likely to come first – the next general election or World War 3.

Other issues competing for our attention include racialism, anti-

Semitism, Muslim activities, the increasing gap between rich and poor, democracy – the list is endless – and there is confusion everywhere.     

In this blog Holdenforth will comment on these and other issues. We make no pretence to be impartial or independent but we will do our utmost to adhere to the central Orwellian principle of sticking to the truth. 

To get our show on the road Holdenforth asserts that the UK is a national Augean stable.

What, I hear you ask, is the meaning of Augean?

Augeus was the king of Elis in ancient Greece, and he had a problem. His problem was that he owned 3,000 oxen whose stalls had not been cleansed for 30 years. If you do the calculation, you will see that Augeus had on his hands a lot of bullshit.

Let us continue. 

Holdenforth accepts that we need to state to our readers what we would actually do were we to find ourselves in a position to do it.

We also plead guilty to the charge that we disagree with almost everyone about almost everything, that Holdenforth is a grizzling griping grousing grumpy old timer. And we assert that on most contentious issues we have been in the right.

Don’t say that you have not been warned.

Israel, Gaza and Anti- Semitism

There is strong competition for the title of the most worrying conflict in the world as I write 6. For Holdenforth, the most worrying conflict is that between Israel and Hamas that has been raging for the past five months.

Holdenforth notes that around 200 hundred innocent civilians – mostly women and children – are being murdered in Gaza on a daily basis as the various academic debates continue about the rights and wrongs of these murders.

We pose the question to Israel in general and Netanyahu in particular – how many more innocent people are to be murdered before you call off the dogs of war. Possibly the most harrowing event now taking place anywhere in the world is the treatment by Israel of the two million inhabitants of Gaza, a tiny narrow strip of land – approximately 45 square kms -to the south and west of Israel.

It is in this tiny area that Hamas operates and in which the October 7 attack was planned.

In the 5 months or so that have elapsed since October 7 Israeli forces have inflicted huge casualties on the civilian population.

In our time there is no shortage of extremely effective propaganda machines.

To illustrate the point the Israelis rightly and raucously highlight that Hamas is a terrorist organisation but they are quite reticent on the terrorist organisation that brought Israel to power, namely Irgun.

Other critics of Israel point out that the Balfour /Lloyd George declaration in 1917 was conceding land to the Zionist Organisation that was not theirs to dispose of. That consideration would not have weighed heavily with Lloyd George and Arthur Balfour.

“In Palestine there was irreconcilable conflict between Arabs and  Jews.”
English History 1914 to 1945, AJP Taylor

“The Balfour Declaration was abandoned after 20 years of attempting to reconcile the irreconcilable. It was no doubt unreasonable that the Arabs of Palestine should pay the whole price of what was a world problem, anti Semitism.”
Extract from English History – AJP Taylor

Where does Holdenforth stand on the most worrying issue of today – the conflict between Israel and Palestine – or, or many refer to it- the conflict between Israel and Hamas?

As I write the media – official and social – are replete with details of the atrocities committed by Hamas terrorists in Gaza. 

For its part Israel has vowed to inflict retribution on those responsible.

Back to Lloyd George and Arthur Balfour  

In Year 2 of the first world war – 1915 – Lloyd George, in his capacity as Minister of Munitions, was concerned about the acute shortage of explosives.

He contacted Professor Weizmann, an accomplished chemist, to explain the problem to him and to seek his help. Professor Weizmann quickly solved the problem and his achievement was a most important contribution to the British war effort.

Lloyd George asked him how he, Lloyd George, might reward Weizmann for his work.

To quote Lloyd George, “Weizmann explained his aspirations as to the repatriation of the Jews to the sacred land they had made famous. When I became Prime Minister in December, 1916, I talked the matter over with Mr Balfour – the outcome was the famous Balfour declaration in 1917.”

This declaration read:

“His Majesty’s Government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.”

During the next 28 years the collective mind of the Jewish Diaspora was understandably pre-occupied with the murderous activities of Hitler in pursuit of his final solution of the Jewish problem.

In post war Palestine the British Government attempted to maintain peace between Jewish immigrants and existing Palestinian communities. This was not an easy task and the UK sought to relinquish the mandate.

One feature of this phase was the emergence of Irgun, a Zionist group roughly equivalent to Hamas in Gaza today.

In the years from the end of WW2 to 1948 Irgun proved to be masters in using terror to secure their aims. Given the scale and severity of the terror the British Government of Mr Atlee wished to be relieved of the mandate.

The Irgun Group wrote the textbook for terrorism that has been imitated around the world to this day.

It is ironic that the “terror” tactics employed by Hamas are taken out of the Irgun textbook.

The State of Israel was established in the summer of 1948.

Events in Palestine since 1948 have seen years of the steady expansion of Israel at the expense of Palestine and others.

Israel continues to occupy and even extend illegal settlements, a point noted in the last week by Mr Gutierrez, the Secretary General of the UN despite the opposition of the United Nations.

“All the devouring and insatiate Monsters imagined since imagination could record itself are fused in the one realisation, Guillotine. And yet there is not in France, with its rich variety of soil and climate, a blade, a leaf, a root, a sprig, a pepper corn which will grow to maturity under conditions more certain than those that have produced this horror. Crush humanity out of shape once more and it will twist itself into the same tortured forms. Sow the same seed of rapacious license and oppression over again and it will surely the same fruit according to its kind.”
From “A Tale of Two Cities” by Charles Dickens

In the above extract Dickens was making the simple point that the horrors of the French Revolution arose from the suppression of the people by the ruling class in previous years.

• Thus – The French Revolution
• Thus the emergence of Hamas

The terms and conditions of the Balfour declaration have drifted down the years away from Palestinian claims and in favour of Jewish claims.

It is not easy to predict a civilised lasting settlement to this frightening conflict, the origins of which go back into the mists of time.

For our part we hope for the best but we fear the worst as the daily toll of deaths mounts.

We would go further – Netanyahu, the most powerful figure in the Middle East, sadly combines the mendacity of Goebbels, the viciousness of Himmler, the arrogance of Goering and the humbug of Mr Pecksniff – an unedifying combination.

A few words on the conflict between the free world and Mr Putin being waged in the Ukraine

This conflict is now well into its third year and there are few signs that the war will end any time soon.

Holdenforth would like to rewind the tape of history back to the Crimean War waged between France and Britain on the one side and Russia on the other side in 1854.

“If there was a moral to be drawn from the Crimean War (1854 to 1856) it would be this: in a war between Russia and The West, it will be the Powers which keep out who will be the real gainers”
From “Crimea: the War that would not boil”, an essay by AJP Taylor.

Does the verdict of AJP Taylor on events which took place almost 200 years ago have any relevance today?

Holdenforth thinks that it does.

The outcome of this conflict today – Putin versus The West – is difficult to predict despite the daily detailed accounts about what is happening.

Holdenforth is mindful of the advice of Orwell that “all propaganda is lies”

Holdenforth follows this advice and tries to be wary about swallowing the information fed out by both sides.

Thus:

We accept that the NATO net is tightening to the north of Russia.

Russia is tightening its grip in Eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of munitions as its suppliers become increasingly anxious about throwing good money after bad. 

It is reported in some quarters that some supporters of the Ukraine cause are dubious about the performance of Zelensky as a latter day Kitchener.

Others have been comforted by the suggestion of Mr Macron that now might be the time to put western boots on to the ground and into the fray, a suggestion that did not meet with universal western approval.

The careless work of the German Intelligence Department in allowing The Kremlin to listen to sensitive conversations about what NATO was planning to do next did little to bolster the confidence of the beleaguered Ukrainians in the day to day conduct of the war.

Just a thought – Mr Zelensky has been strident that Putin and his henchmen be brought to justice once Ukraine has emerged victorious.

Where does Zelensky stand on the conflict in Gaza? At what level of fatalities might he say that enough is enough?

The death of Mr Navalny.

The available evidence suggests that Putin is as contemptuous as Netanyahu about the murders that he is prepared to authorise in order to secure his objectives and strengthen his position.

Just as Netanyahu follows the Irgun rule book so Putin is prepared to follow the example of Stalin in his pursuit of Trotsky.

Gosh – Trotsky again in an Holdenforth blog. We are merely reporting and have no links with Momentum.

Notes on democracy

Many Western commentators on the prospects of WW3 breaking out rightly stress the importance of democratic safeguards in their various institutional arrangements.

What then is democracy?

“Democracy is that system of government under which a great free people having 35 million people to choose, pick out a Coolidge to be head of state. It is as if a hungry man set before a banquet prepared by master cooks … should stay his stomach by eating and catching flies.”
Thus HL Mencken on Coolidge in 1927.

What are we to make of the selections of Biden and Trump respectively in 2024?

“The democratic method is that institutional arrangement for arriving at political decisions in which individuals acquire the power to decide by means of a competitive struggle for the people’s vote”
From “Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy” by Joseph Schumpeter.

Holdenforth is happy to second this definition.

It is quite easy to spot the difference between regimes which abide by this definition and those which don’t.

All those living in Europe and North America will testify to the ferocity of the competitive struggle for the people’s vote.

Mr Putin pays lip service to the principle but those contemplating participating in the struggle in Russia are understandably uneasy about the hazards posed by joining in the competitive struggle.

Holdenforth is ready to acknowledge the strong democratic credentials of Israel – the opponents of Mr Netanyahu in Israel are only too ready to expatiate on his weaknesses.

In defence of Nigel Farage

For Holdenforth aka John Holden – what follows will not be easy to write but our claim to be honest and fair must be demonstrated.

Holdenforth has disagreed with Farage’s tireless efforts in the past decade to urge the cause of Brexit and we have said so in numerous blogs. He could accurately be described as the Founding Father of Brexit.

On the credit side in Farage’s favour we gladly acknowledge his successful campaign to expose the shabby tactics employed in the financial sector to refuse banking facilities to those deemed on flimsy grounds or on no grounds to be unsuitable.

Farage has to be congratulated for his successful campaign to expose the pitiful attempts by HMG to control the steady flow of illegal immigrants from Europe into the UK. His key point has been that all these immigrants are breaking the law because they are already in a safe country and therefore at no risk.

And Farage has led the fight to highlight the sheer absurdity of seeking to transfer those whose applications have failed to Ruanda – a costly embarrassing failure.  All small boat arrivals are criminals because they are NOT at risk in France.

Farage has been and continues to be right. 

There – we said it.

Defence of the realm

Holdenforth has been shaken by the catalogue of serious failures in recent months about the reliability of some of the key sections of our defence arrangements. Erratic missiles and poor maintenance performance of key ships come to mind.

I recall that many years ago there was a rumpus when a half-eaten pork pie was found in the sharp end of a British missile.

We had assumed that such sloppiness had been rooted out but evidently that has not been the case.

When the time comes – to go over the top –  do we seek a postponement until our repairs are completed?

The Post Office scandal

We have had our say in previous blogs about this interminably protracted scandal

Right now, we will limit ourselves to insisting that the criminal proceedings to be taken against senior post office managers be speeded up.

This action and the proceedings carried out by Win Williams are not mutually exclusive.

Gorgeous George

George Galloway and his tirades against Keir Starmer – a damp squib or a real threat to the electoral prospects of the Labour Party in 2024?

Holdenforth would like to contribute to the Galloway debate but his most recent visit to Rochdale was to watch a Rugby League match between Rochdale Hornets and Warrington in 1954. This gap of 70 years may make our awareness of what is happening in the town a little dated.

Getting On

We referred earlier to the probable contest between President Biden v  Mr Trump in the November Presidential election.

Holdenforth is confused about this prospect.

On the one hand we are delighted at the confidence shown in octogenarians by the political machines of the Democrats and Republicans.

On the other hand, Holdenforth will be 84 in a few months’ time and he is only too aware of the validity of the jibe by Shakespeare on this theme:

“And then from to hour we ripe and ripe
And then from hour we rot and rot
And thereby hangs a tale”

Speaking as an octogenarian – but NOT claiming to represent old timers – I am relaxed about aged fingers on nuclear weapon triggers – but I would not be relaxed if I were still on the ripe and ripe section of life. 

Two observations

*Holdenforth noted the comedy aspects of the group photo which included Queen Camilla and Vanessa Redgrave . The former has been a tireless worker to secure promotion from the slightly unseemly role as the mistress of the Prince of Wales to the rather more exalted title of the Queen of England.

Dame Vanessa Redgrave was at one time a ferocious member of the Trotsky movement dedicated to the overthrow of the existing social order.

If you can’t beat ‘em then join ‘em!

* “Junior City lawyers in line for £2m pay packet”
Headline in the Daily Mail, February 27^th

One sector of the national economy that is running counter to the national trend is the professional legal sector where affluence can be found in abundance. They flourish not only in advising on issues within the UK but also internationally as obscure disputes are brought to the UK to be resolved usually in painfully protracted proceedings.

“ It appears that there’s gold in them there courts.”

Notes by the editor

The editor would like to respond to a couple of the points made in Holdenforth’s latest epistle. The first concerns Mr Zelenksy’s public utterances (or lack of) on the conflict in Gaza. I would diffidently suggest that there are at least two possible reasons for this, which are not mutually exclusive: both are equally plausible. The first is that Mr Zelensky has not provided his hot take on Gaza, or the Anglophone conflict in Cameroon, or the Boko Haram crisis, or the Schleswig-Holstein question, or United’s chances in the cup, because he has other priorities, such as dealing with a Russian invasion. The second is that, what with said Russian invasion taking its toll on national resources, he is anxious to maximise the number of potential allies who might be willing to contribute in whatever way to the war effort: history is littered with national leaders who have been obliged to hold their nose in this way.

The second concerns the blanket assertion that “all small boat arrivals are criminals because they are NOT at risk in France”. My response here will take a little more of your time, and will take in (amongst other things) a Fellowship in Leeds, the mendacity of the populist right, the Chichester Park Hotel and the assiduous research of Dr Matthew Sweet.

In the latter half of the 1990s, I was engaged by the Institute of Communications Studies, University of Leeds to read the newspapers for a living. There was a little more to it than that: if I came across an article pertaining to immigration, asylum seekers, racism, xenophobia or right-wing extremism I was then obliged to log it in an Access database under an extensive coding scheme. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there was a little more to be logged in the Mail or the Sun than in the Guardian, but as a proportion of the whole, across all newspapers, not many articles needed to be logged. I would venture to suggest that were the exercise to be repeated in the current climate, those proportions would be far higher: for the past decade or so, the Daily Express in particular has devoted many of its pages to particularly unpleasant diatribes about foreigners (indeed, its front pages in that time seem to include pretty much nothing else, apart from perhaps the Royal Family and wholly erroneous long-term weather forecasts).

The Express (and its broadcast media equivalent, GB News) have sought to inflame the debate with dangerous, misleading rhetoric which should not go unchallenged.

Firstly, the notion of ‘first safe country’ is not to be found in international law; The 1951 Refugee Convention does not require a person to claim asylum in the first safe country they reach and explicitly states that asylum seekers should not be penalised for irregular entry into a country in which they intend to submit an application for refugee status”. This point has been reaffirmed on numerous occasions both in international law and, in 1999, by a British court.

So: not criminal, which is Holdenforth’s main objection. However, I think we need to dig a little deeper. There are those (not, I would emphasise, Holdenforth) who might then ask, “Why are they coming here, guv? Why don’t they just stay in France?” Without bothering to look at facts, those asking the questions typically satisfy themselves that the answer is (a) benefits (b) taking our jobs (c) raping our women (d) conducting terrorist activities or (e) all of the above.

Let us try and answer that question.

To begin with, if the asylum seekers have a smattering of a second language, it tends to be English rather than French. Secondly, France receives far more asylum seekers than the UK, and only a very small proportion of those (albeit a significant number) can be found camped out in atrocious conditions in ‘The Jungle’ settlement at Calais. Thirdly, it should be observed that the far right in France is well established; many politicians have built careers on the back of racist, Islamophobic and indeed anti-Semitic public utterances; its police can be trigger happy with the pepper spray and the tear gas: in short, France can be unpleasant if you are Black, Jewish and don’t speak French. Fourthly, those seeking asylum in the UK may have family members living in the UK, or else will be seeking support from the wider diaspora based in the UK.

Next, it is important to emphasise that many of these individuals are not economic migrants, but have been displaced by internal conflicts (often instigated, at least in part, by Western interventions). They are fleeing death, torture or sexual assault. They are desperate. Many are easy prey to the gangs who extort considerable sums of money from them, in return for allowing them – allowing them! – to risk their lives in a perilous Channel crossing.

Many of those that do succeed would be more than happy to take any jobs that are available, particularly in the informal sector: crop picking, car cleaning, working in fast food restaurants. Indeed, in crop picking, they are essential to the sector’s viability. They are not coming for the benefits (which, in France, are slightly higher).

Nor are they here to rape our women. There have recently been demonstrations (primarily consisting of extremists bussed-in from outside the area) outside the Chichester Park Hotel, now used as temporary housing for asylum seekers. The fact that those asylum seekers are overwhelmingly women and children has not deterred the demonstrators from insisting that there are sexual predators on their doorstep. (Furthermore, there is no evidence to suggest that asylum seekers are any more likely to commit sexual offences than the population at large.)

But the Express or GB News will not have this, because whipping up anger is their game. The latter does this by riffing on populist (primarily xenophobic) fears while encouraging a raft of ludicrous but potentially highly dangerous conspiracy theories. The writer and broadcaster Matthew Sweet has devoted considerable time and energy to exposing their mendacity; I would just like to dip my toe into these unpleasant waters by highlighting a few of them:

• The channel regularly features Neil Oliver, who spends most of his time making false claims about the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. that it causes new kinds of blood clots) and fictional “turbo” cancers or else claiming that the Jews are planning to impose a “one-world” government. In January 2024, he agreed with an interviewee who claimed that “a mysterious group” (whom she named elsewhere as the Jews) had a plan to turn us into cyborgs.

• In 2022, it included several interviews on the Mark Steyn programme with Naomi Wolf, who described the vaccination rollout as “mass murder” and compared it to the actions of doctors “in pre-Nazi Germany”. (Steyn himself delivered misleading monologues about the rollout before leaving the channel after it decided to make him personally liable for any future Ofcom fines. Wolf has since gone even further down the rabbit hole, insisting that “they” are enabling time travel and putting chips in our arms via the vaccine.)

• This week GB News has complained that a gentleman called Sam Melia was imprisoned for two years for distributing stickers that read “It’s OK to be white”. Melia, a former member of a proscribed far right group, was actually imprisoned for plastering anti-Semitic stickers outside Jewish schools.

The channel has also provided a platform for far-right groups such as Voice of Wales (now banned from mainstream online outlets) and former members of proscribed organisations such as For Britain.

And behind all this nonsense, this poison, sits Farage the ringmaster, the peerless populist always staying just the right side of the legal line so that he can avoid charges of outright racism while playing to his audience with a concoction of half truths and plain lies, deftly fomenting discontent. It remains to be seen whether he will return to front line politics with Reform UK; if so, it is unlikely that he would risk standing for Parliament again, because that is a game he might well lose. Rather, he will be Reform’s cheerleader from the sidelines, hoping that after the Conservative Party’s probable demolition at the imminent General Election that Reform, bolstered by the rump of the Tory right, might be in a position to push for power further down the line.

Like Trump, Farage has blossomed in the unfiltered post-Twitter world, where everything, even the obvious truth, can be dismissed as “fake news”. However, it is important to challenge those dismissals, and to ensure that facts – cold, hard, facts – are presented are such, and xenophobia called out for what it is.

Labour Party Prospects and the Middle East Conflict

In our previous blog we pointed out some discrepancies between the performance of the Sunak administration and the claims made by Mr Sunak at his party conference.

We pointed out what we thought were significant gaps between claims and performance.

The voters in the bye elections in Mid Beds and Tamworth seemed to share our view. Both formerly rock solid Tory seats were lost to the Labour Party.

The antics of Crispin Blunt have hammered another nail into the Tory coffin.

These losses cannot have strengthened the position of Mr Sunak as he seeks to persuade various countries in the Middle East to maintain support for Israel.

Holdenforth had planned, in the interests of fairness, to carry out a similar check on the Labour Party as it prepares for the next general election.

This has turned out to be a difficult assignment.

Why so?

It appears to us that the key core central policy of the Labour Party in the current political climate is to obtain the keys of No 10 – all other considerations have been jettisoned to secure this objective.

The approach of the Labour Party appears to have been based on the tactics used by the boxer, Mohamed Ali – “I will float like a butterfly and sting like a bee”.

This approach will be greatly assisted by the fact that its Tory opponent is already on the canvas and out for the count.

Are there any weaknesses in the Starmer policy?

A few. Here goes.

The unanimity across the UK in support of Israel is starting to fray at the edges as Palestinian voices within the Labour Party appear to be growing louder. My guess is that Starmer will argue that this is a tribute to the diverse spread of opinion in the UK, a state of affairs long championed by the Labour Party.

In some areas of the UK – notably in the devolved parts – policies are being introduced which have not been welcomed even in the devolved areas. In my devolved area, Wales, one policy has been met with a mixture of derision and disobedience – that of the 20mph speed limit. Holdenforth aka John Holden is quite relaxed on this issue. The only journey currently in our plans is from home to the local crematorium – we are sure that the hearse driver will be happy to comply with the 20 mph limit.

In some Labour controlled local authorities, those in charge tried to introduce a policy of allowing employees to work – a doubtfully accurate term in this context – a four-day week whilst retaining their five-day rewards packages. The Labour Party apparatchiks have nipped this loony left nonsense in the bud.

A spot of plagiarism. Eagle eyed readers have spotted a few infringements by Rachel Reeves of the time-honoured guidelines regarding plagiarism. Her apologists will plausibly argue that RR was in such a hurry to get so many things done in the twin causes of Starmerism and Feminism that one or two errors crept in. Holdenforth fully accepts that these errors fade into complete insignificance when contrasted with the lamentable failures of Mr Sunak and his administration.

Abuse of parliamentary privilege. Nigel Farage has rightly complained that Sir Chris Bryant lied in the Commons alleging under the protection of parliamentary privilege that he, Farage, had been paid by The Russians for services rendered.  Labour could be on shaky ground here. Holdenforth understands that Bryant has episodes on his CV would not look good when the inquisitive media trawl the files in search of material to dredge up. People in glass houses should not throw stones, especially when serving on committees set up to scrutinise standards in public life.

The transgender issue. Holdenforth understands that there are influential voices in the Labour Party that are raucous in support of those seeking to argue for choice in the delicate matter of gender. This contentious issue continues to feature in the media and the debate continues to generate more heat than light. The Holdenforth stance – based on a Keep it Simple approach – has been consistent from the outset: “If my aunt had bollocks, she would be my uncle but she doesn’t and she isn’t”. We suggest a quick and simple test to establish who is what – those with balls are male. What they would like to be is a different matter – most of us would like to have been dealt a better hand by mother nature but that is a different matter. We would also point out that a core tenet of American Foreign Policy is-”When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow“ – but we are drifting from our theme.

Summary so far  – game, set and match to Starmer.

What are the silent majority thinking?

A persuasive voice has been heard lately suggesting that the two big parties ignore at their peril those who hold opinions out of step with the proclaimed views  of the big two.

They pose the question -What are the people REALLY thinking?

Matthew Goodwin has secured a platform to answer this question by the simple time-honoured technique of sampling. His findings might – just might – provide uncomfortable reading for the movers and shakers.

A number of issues have emerged under this heading.

They include:

• Immigration
• Gender
• Care arrangements for the elderly
• Net zero policies
• Anti motorist policies

The silent majority are all too ready to answer questions on these matters. It could be that the perceived gap between leaders and led will attract the interest of embryo politicians who believe that they have identified a gap in the market for power.

There is still time for those avid for influence to seize the moment.

IF substantial numbers of voters dislike the polices of both parties, how can they express their views.

Watch this space.

So: might Starmer be in some difficulties as election day looms?

Senior managers employed by HMRC are said to be clear on the distinction between tax avoidance and tax evasion – and to be adept on cracking down on tax evasion.

Holdenforth suspects that the formidable Laura Kuensberg will pin down Starmer on the distinction between policy avoidance and policy evasion.

She will home in on Starmer should he attempt to duck and weave on policy evasion.

“It’s a perfectly straightforward question Sir Keir. Please give viewers a clear answer.”

How does Holdenforth intend to vote?

I will vote Labour. My local MP is a jewel in the rather battered crown of the UK Labour Party.

I give you – Nick Thomas Symonds.

Middle Eastern Matters

Where does Holdenforth stand on the most worrying issue of today – the conflict between Israel and Palestine – or, or many refer to it – the conflict between Israel and Hamas?

As I write the media – official and social – are replete with details of the atrocities committed by Hamas terrorists in Israel.

For its part Israel has vowed to inflict retribution on those responsible.

Holdenforth opted to glance back at the origins of the conflict.

The Balfour Declaration issued in November, 1917

In Year 2 of the first world war – 1915 – Lloyd George, in his capacity as Minister of Munitions, was concerned about the acute shortage of explosives.

He contacted Professor Weizmann, an accomplished chemist, to explain the problem to him and to seek his help. Professor Weizmann quickly solved the problem and his achievement  was a most important contribution to the British war effort.

Lloyd George asked him how he, Lloyd George, might reward Weizmann for his work.

To quote Lloyd George – “Weizmann explained his aspirations as to the repatriation of the Jews to the sacred land they had made famous. When I became Prime Minister – in December, 1916, I talked the matter over with Mr Balfour – the outcome was the famous Balfour declaration in 1917.”

This declaration read:-

“His Majesty’s Government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.

During the next 28 years the collective mind of the Jewish Diaspora was understandably pre-occupied with the murderous activities of Hitler in pursuit of his final solution of the Jewish problem.

The Years 1945 to 1948 in Palestine

In post war Palestine the British Government attempted to maintain peace between Jewish immigrants and existing Palestinian communities. This was not an easy task and the UK sought to relinquish the mandate.

One feature of this phase was the emergence of Irgun, a Zionist group roughly equivalent to Hamas in Gaza today.

In the years from the end of WW2 to 1948 Irgun proved to be masters in using terror to secure their aims. Given the scale and severity of the terror the British Government of Mr Atlee wished to be relieved of the mandate.

The Irgun Group wrote the textbook for terrorism that has been imitated around the world to this day.

It is ironic that the “terror” tactics employed by Hamas are taken out of the Irgun textbook.

One terrorist activity of Irgun was to place a bomb in the King David Hotel in Jerusalem in the summer of 1946.This hotel housed the British Secretariat and Army HQ and almost 100 people were killed.

The public comments of senior British politicians about this appalling act of terrorism could serve as a template for the terms used to describe Hamas today.

The universal hostile references in the UK – including the comments of the then Prime Minister, Mr Attlee, to the terrorist activities of Irgun can be accessed on the internet.

The State of Israel was established in the summer of 1948.

Post 1948

Events in Palestine since 1948 have seen years of the steady expansion of Israel at the expense of Palestine and others.

Israel continues to occupy and even extend illegal settlements, a point noted in the last 48 hours by Mr Guterres, the Secretary General of the UN despite the opposition of the United Nations.

“All the devouring and insatiate Monsters imagined since imagination could record itself are fused in the one realisation, Guillotine. And yet there is not in France, with its rich variety of soil and climate, a blade, a leaf, a root, a sprig, a pepper corn which will grow to maturity under conditions more certain than those that have produced this horror. Crush humanity out of shape once more and it will twist itself into the same tortured forms. Sow the same seed of rapacious license and oppression over again and it will surely the same fruit according to its kind.”
From “ A Tale of Two Cities” by Charles Dickens

In the above extract Dickens was making the simple point that the horrors of the French Revolution arose from the suppression of the people by the ruling class in previous years.

• Thus the French Revolution
• Thus the emergence of Hamas

The terms and conditions of the Balfour declaration have drifted a little down the years away from Palestinian claims and in favour of Jewish claims.

Lloyd George was rather too ready to cede land that was not the property of the UK to dispose of.

“All Propaganda is Lies”
George Orwell

Holdenforth goes along with Orwell on this view but it would be interesting to see the details of Palestinians killed as against the number of Israelis killed in the various conflicts in and around Israel since 1948.

Our suspicion is that fatalities on the Palestinian side significantly outnumber those on the Israeli side.

What might happen next?

“It is now by now a commonplace of history that Bevin (Foreign Secretary in the Labour Government from 1945 to 1950), brought the State of Israel into being very much as Lord North and George the 3^rd founded the United States.
From “The Power of Ideas by Isaiah Berlin.

Two shaky assertions from a normally calm and lucid eminent historian.

It is not easy to predict a civilised lasting settlement to this frightening conflict, the origins of which go back into the mists of time.

For our part we hope for the best but we fear the worst.

Notes by the Editor

While Holdenforth has sought to focus on the origins of the conflict (which others might argue dates back to 733BC when King Tiglath-Pileser III of Assyria turfed the Jews out of Samaria), Holdenforth’s editor would like to address two pertinent contemporary questions.

Firstly, why now? And secondly, what is Hamas’ endgame? It strikes me that an October 11 article by Joe Macaron neatly encapsulated the multiple answers to the first question, namely that, firstly, additional land-grabs by settlers in the West Bank, encouraged by Netanyahu’s far-right government; secondly, the recent normalisation of Arab-Israeli relationships, and in particular the détente between Tel Aviv and Riyadh; and, critically, greater warmth between Hamas and Iran. While the first point will be used by Hamas as justification for its action, the second and third points are perhaps more salient here. Given that Hamas’ raison d’etre is the annihilation of Israel (and, it can be argued given the wording of its founding charter, of all Jews), Middle Eastern stability involving that state is anathema.

This leads us to the answer to the second question. In performing the most devastating massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, Hamas would have clearly understood what the consequences would have been to Palestinians living in Gaza: its objective was to provoke a regional conflagration, destabilise the fragile tolerance between Israel and its neighbours (and, post-Netanyahu, scotch the potential of a viable two-state solution coming about) and, as a corollary, inflame intra-nation conflicts between Jews and Muslims elsewhere in the world. This much has been recognised by the Biden administration (and, it must be said, by several other Western governments including those of Germany and the UK), which have in public smothered Israel in love while privately seeking, somehow, to stop the dreadful situation spiralling out of control. Hence the measured calls for pauses in conflict rather than ceasefires, which Israel will (a) never agree to given that, they argue, it will provide an opportunity for Hamas to regroup and rearm and (b) may exacerbate a siege mentality and lead it to proceed with even more terrible effect, making that regional conflict far more likely. Let me repeat: no matter how many letters Miriam Margoyles and Michael Rosen sign, calling for a ceasefire, it will make not one positive contribution to the outcome, although it might give them a warm feeling inside.  

Meanwhile, we also have that third answer to Question One tied up in all this. Behind Hamas, Hezbollah and an assortment of other disparate Shia militant organisations lurks the Islamic Republic of Iran, providing them with funding of the order of $700 million per annum. While it was not behind the October 7 attacks (or even knew about their precise timing), then it certainly contributed to Hamas’ capabilities, both directly (it has transferred artillery rockets to Palestinian groups) and indirectly, via finances and expertise. Iran shares Hamas’ goal of destabilising Arab-Israeli relations, and Iran is more than happy to enable proxies to achieve that goal.

Like Holdenforth, we fear for the worst in this.

The Decline and decline of the BBC

The nationwide search for Mr – Who?

As I write – possibly the most popular topic of conversation across the country remains the activities of the now outed Huw Edwards. Holdenforth suspects that there are more hacks from all parts of the official and unofficial media still on the case than were paid by the BBC to attend the Glastonbury festival – said to be circa 500.

We at Holdenforth have better things to do with our time and so will resist the temptation to join in the hue ( geddit?) and cry pursuit of Mr Edwards.  Instead we will run over the arguments we have advanced in previous blogs to resolve the long standing BBC problem by the simple expedient of privatising it. Here goes.

Back in 2003,  Holdenforth, Aka John Holden,  wrote the first draft of his book A Cushy Number.

I selected three prominent figures from the world of professional football to develop my idea of what constituted a Cushy Number.

One of my selected figures was Gary Lineker.

Let me repeat what I wrote 20 years ago.

What about Mr Lineker, our TV pundit. By any standard his job is one of, at best, medium demand with the job holder under no significant stress.

Performance measurement is perfunctory, but even sceptics like me must accept that his combination of suavity and well informed comments are likely to earn the approval of the viewers.

A few years ago, there was some unseemly comment in the gutter press about his off-side sexual activities, with his more acerbic critics noting that he would have been a more effective player had he shown the same zeal on the football field that he has shown in the bedroom. For our part we note that the scale of his playing away activities is evidence of the relative cushiness of his job…

What about the job of Mr Lineker? All very relaxed, but with a question mark over job security. Performance measurement is partly a matter of ratings, but it is always complicated by the issue of competing channels…  Mr Lineker is clearly well rewarded and his modest working hours leave him plenty of time and opportunity to pick up moonlighting money.

Readers, please note the final phrase – plenty of time and opportunity to pick up moonlighting money!

Holdenforth on Mr Lineker in March, 2023 –  Notes on free speech:

Some spectators of the Lineker v BBC sideshow have argued that the BBC is suppressing free speech.

Holdenforth will point out that where Lineker is involved – nothing is free – or even cheap. 

Where were we?

In the beginning God created the BBC and his first Pope was John Reith.

For a while all went according to plan – and presumably God saw that it was good.

Sadly, the sons and daughters of Satan seized the levers of power within the BBC and the descent into the abyss gathered momentum.

Today the BBC proclaims that it remains a sui generis that adheres to its original divine mission statement.

Holdenforth diffidently notes that there are those outside the BBC who disagree with this delusion and who argue that the BBC is most accurately summed up by its perceived mission statement by those outside the BBC – “ there’s no business like show business.”

Indeed, we will go further – we suggest that the gap between the BBC propaganda about its elevated place in our society and the outside view that its privileged days are numbered is clearly visible.

Notes on which institutions sit where in our society and where they ought to sit  — The Hierarchy of Institutions

Time was when the first three estates were established along the following lines:

• The spiritual as represented by the Clergy:

The boundaries between the component groups were said to be fluid – but we will put the  boundaries issue on the back burner for now.

At some point a fourth estate was defined – sometime in the late 18^th century – as being the press. The function of this estate was to keep a suspicious eye on what those in Estates 1 to 3 were up to.

Much more recently perceptive sociologists have defined a fifth estate – those who operate in the jungle that is inhabited and controlled by social  media.

Where does the BBC sit in this hierarchy of estates?

Holdenforth has never seen this key issue discussed. However we have no doubt that the BBC – thinking of itself as a sui generis –  sees itself as the sixth estate – outside and remote from the squalid struggles for power that pervade Estates 1 to 5 inclusive.

Anything else to add?

Holdenforth has long argued that the BBC has abandoned the hallowed status acquired for it by John Reith and that the BBC should be promptly privatised.

We noted – in a detached way – that the BBC Chairman, Richard Sharp had resigned following accusations that he had been less than prudent in his dealings with Boris Johnson. So – we mused – that is the usual fate of those who have dealings with Boris Johnson.

However – we did not leave it at that. We looked at the organisation structures used to manage and oversee the BBC and we were struck by the sheer vacuity of so many of the top jobs and the immense scope for some ruthless pruning in this area.

Accordingly,  we suggest to those in the private equity sector – here is a fat organisation – correction – an obese organisation – offering substantial opportunities for slimming down.

Get your numbers boys to carry out a swift due diligence exercise – you can’t go wrong.

We must rule out Mr Rupert Murdoch in this instance – far too busy with his complex matrimonial activities.

Holdenforth can claim some relevant experience in this area- some years ago bright young go getter introduced the idea and approach of lean management. Long before this bright young go getter published his views I worked for an organisation that pioneered the idea and approach of emaciated management  – and the lessons learned in that harsh managerial climate have remained with me.

We were about to leave it at that but at the last moment we were gratified to be assisted in our case against the BBC by a most illuminating six column article in – you’ve guessed it – The Daily Mail – detailing who  is currently paid what at the BBC.

What follows is far more gripping to Holdenforth than the frothy reports about Huw Edwards.

Predictably Mr Gary Lineker tops the list at £1.35M for his not especially onerous part time duties.

Further details of the earnings of senior BBC staff are supplied and we note, more in sorrow than anger, that Mark Easton has to get by on £200k.

An additional intriguing group of BBC “employees” are those paid via third parties. Holdenforth would not dream of hinting that there are tax advantages to payments made in this way. Suffice it to say that all the costs incurred – directly or indirectly – are paid out by the BBC, and, ultimately by the licence fee.

Let us get to our main points – at last.

For many years senior employees at the BBC argued that they remained at the BBC out of a sense of public duty and could earn far more elsewhere.

Let us put that dubious claim to the test by privatising the BBC.

It would be instructive to review after a year or so how many had been let go as being surplus to the requirements of the new owners, and of those remaining how many were paid more and how many were paid less.

Holdenforth proposes that HMG should privatise the BBC – just sell it off in its entirety to the highest bidder.

The BBC would could thus be redefined as just another part of the 4^th estate and subject to the same terms and conditions as all the other members of the 4^th estate.

The rest of us – the commoners – can then spend more time considering and learning how to cope with rather graver matters – UK membership of the EU, the War in the Ukraine, / NHS in crisis, widespread disruption of services by public sector unions, – you get the picture.

A stroll down memory lane

“Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he?”
Response from Marylyn Rice -Davies, a close friend of Christine Keeler,  when questioned during the Profumo Affair in 1963 about her contacts with a senior figure involved in the scandal.

An updated version:

“Water firm bosses fight plans to cut their bonus”

Mail on Sunday, July 2

Well, they would say that, wouldn’t they?

Those of us not enjoying the immense pickings by those at the top of the water sector may well not be in favour of allowing this small but affluent group to continue to help themselves.

“Sir:-there is no settling the point of precedency between a louse and flea”
Dr Johnson on which of two obscure poets was the better poet in 1776

“The essential function of marriage is the continuance of the race…

The accidental function of marriage is the gratification of the amoristic sentiment of mankind

The artificial sterilisation of marriage makes it possible for to fulfil its accidental function whilst neglecting its essential one.”
From “The Revolutionist’s Handbook” by George Bernard Shaw – 1903

There was a boisterous  altercation recently between two combative factions at a public gathering to demonstrate their respective views.

The larger group was anxious to ensure that the public was aware of the rights of the LGBT sector to equality with regards to sexual preferences.

The smaller but if anything rather more aggressive group, the Stop Oil sector, was anxious to persuade / cajole/ bully the rest of us into agreeing to its demands.

The ensuing confrontation was a source of entertainment to those with no affiliation  to either sector.

Holdenforth takes the same view as Dr Johnson as to which of the two groups was in the right.

One aspect of the war between THE WEST and Putin.

This conflict, which has never been out the news since the initial invasion launched by Russia is once again a major issue of concern in THE WEST.

Holdenforth would like to flag up just one aspect of the war.

We have noted that there is an element of selective indignation in the moral fervour voiced on a 24/7 platform by President Zelensky. He appears to be quite relaxed about the appalling record of Israel in the flouting of international law and especially about the one sided war between Israel and the various groups in Palestine.

To be consistent, surely he could urge that the many countries committed to freedom might consider equipping  the Palestinians with modern and powerful weapons to reverse the illegal occupation of their land by Israel?

Holding Coutts to Account

Since Brexit first emerged as a major issue some 10 years ago Nigel Farage has been possibly the most influential politician presenting the Brexit case – and Holdenforth has taken the opposite view throughout these years.

We never thought that we thought that we would say this, but we now think that Mr Farage has been hard done by in the treatment of himself and his family by his bank.

We will support and sign any petition campaigning to restore a normal banking service to Mr Farage.

Holdenforth Marks Time

We at Holdenforth will begin this blog with two apologies:

• Holdenforth has received some complaints from readers accusing us of being too prolix. In normal times we would reject this absurd allegation with contumely, but these are not normal times. Accordingly in this blog, we will limit ourselves to the very bones of the issues. We will be terse, laconic, pithy, succinct and – whoops – there we go again.

• In addition, we have to confess ourselves  confused by the all-pervasive chaos that is the present condition of the UK.

Rather than add to this confusion and chaos we will carry out a review of what we have written recently and will then proceed – in the time honoured fashion – to mark our own homework. 

Where had we got to on Brexit?

“A story has no beginning or end: arbitrarily one chooses that moment of experience from which to look back or from which to look ahead.”

From “The End of the affair “ by Graham Greene

When Brexit first surfaced as a major political issue in the UK – there were two relevant agreements to consider.

• “The Good Friday Agreement” signed in April 1998, and
• The European Union formed after WW2 to replace a millennium of conflict between nation states with a civilised co-operative union.

Both of these developments represented considerable improvements on what had preceded them.

Where are we right now on Brexit? As I write Mr Sunak is here, there and everywhere seeking to persuade the various main stakeholders to tick the agreement that he has secured with the EU.

A few opening points to get started.

• Mr Sunak is to be congratulated on making as much progress as he has made thus far. His emollient stance throughout has made a most welcome change to the unseemly combination of mendacity and truculence that were and remain such prominent features of the policy of Mr Johnson.
• For us at Holdenforth,  Brexit was and remains the root cause of all the problems that have arisen since it first surfaced as an issue.
• Sadly – for Mr Sunak – but predictably for the rest of us Johnson has emerged from the shadows to launch his comeback.

• For the record, Holdenforth is anxious to locate the alleged Remainer conspiracy movement and to enlist in its ranks  – we have been consistent Remainers from the outset and we will go to our graves with the banner of the Remainers draped over our ashes.

Brexit did not arrive on the UK scene unexpectedly. The two main UK political parties had both experienced major problems since the end of WW2 with dissident elements who were anxious to ensure that the UK did NOT join the EU and were angry when the UK did join.

“He swung the Labour Party into a posture of general hostility towards Britain joining the Common Market”

Roy Jenkins writing about Hugh Gaitskell.

One especially poignant quarrel was within the Labour Party between the passionate pro-European Roy Jenkins and the equally passionate anti-European Hugh Gaitskell.

The Tory party experienced similar internal difficulties both in and out of office.

The various disputes simmered on, but the UK DID join the EU on Jan 1, 1973 when Mr Heath occupied No 10.

What happened to trigger our leaving the EU?

Answer – An unfortunate combination of one formidable and effective campaigner, Nigel Farage, one duplicitous politician, Boris Johnson and one politician who combined ineffectiveness with political cowardice, David Cameron.

• Q. Did the contribution to the debate of Mr Corbyn help or hinder the Brexit cause?
• A – An easy one – the decision of Mr Corbyn to abdicate his responsibilities and to leave the policy of his party to the people to decide was a gift to the Brexiteers who provided clear decisive and wholly mischievous and misleading leadership to the doubters.

A few words about the leading Brexiteers.

Mr Nigel Farage.

Holdenforth sees Mr Farage as THE main architect of the Brexit outcome – a view shared by Mr Farage – one of the very few areas where Holdenforth and Nigel Farage are in complete agreement. Farage  has been a consistent critic of all things European since his years in the EU and he has over the years secured significant support by focusing on minor and irrational aspects of our EU membership whilst choosing to ignore the enormous gains throughout Europe by replacing the appalling wars of the previous centuries with the setting up of  civilised cooperative arrangements.

Those doubting these assertions might do well to remind themselves about the events across Europe between 1939 and 1945. Those with longer memories might recall the events of July 1, 1916 when 20,000 British Troops were killed on Day 1 of the Battle of the Somme.

Mr Boris Johnson.

If Farage is the main architect of Brexit – what has been and still is the contribution of Boris Johnson to the success of the Brexit campaign?

Holdenforth has noted that Boris Johnson sought to portray himself as a Churchillian figure able to crystallise the views of the confused UK electorate into an aversion to the EU and a love of – who else – Boris Johnson.

Holdenforth sees an historical parallel but not the one issued by the BOJO PR machine.

Instead we see BOJO as a latter day Horatio Bottomley, a man who was an effective pro war public speaker in WW1 but who later served a prison sentence for crimes against the truth.

To seek to redress the balance we will now and in future blogs refer to BOJO as Boris (Horace) Johnson, with the Horace  being a diminutive of Horatio to remind readers about the reasons for the decline and fall of Bottomley.

Don’t forget – those closest to Boris (Horace) Johnson are the ones who distrust him the most.

Stop press items – a few issues have surfaced in recent days further to muddy the political waters of the UK.

“You have sat too long here for any good that you have been doing. Depart , I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!”

Oliver Cromwell when dismissing the Long Parliament. His comment was used by Leo Amery on day 1 of the debate about the future of Neville Chamberlain – who was replaced by Churchill as Prime Minister just 4 days later.

Holdenforth would like to see A Tory MP stand up in the House Commons and very publicly urge Boris (Horace) Johnson to act on this advice. Most of us outside the Westminster Bubble have enough whispered leaks for now.

And while we are at it – would a Tory MP – any Tory MP – urge Mr Hancock to accompany Boris (Horace) Johnson on his exit stage right?

It seems that Mr Hancock has added to his already formidable catalogue of dubious activities by passing enough ammunition plus a delivery system to Ms Oakeshott to remove him from the public gaze once and for all.

Anything else before we move on.

• Were there piss ups in No10 during the pandemic? It would seem likely given the universal thirst that seems to pervade the Palace of Westminster.

• Sue Gray has been portrayed by some in the Tory Party as the most untrustworthy public servant since Kim Philby opted to throw in his lot with the Bolshevik boys many years ago? Holdenforth cannot comment since we don’t know.

• One professional group likely to be delighted with the complexity of the issues at the heart of current the Brexit debate will be the legal profession – the combination of mostly languid pace of events with the arbitrary nature of the eventual outcomes will be a source of satisfaction to our legal eagles.

More on this aspect in a future blog.

What about David Cameron?

“Brexit cost me my dearest friendships and my marriage… “

Headline above the column by Sarah Vine in The Daily Mail on  March 1

Holdenforth is indebted to Sarah Vine for her observations about the contribution of David Cameron to the Brexit debacle – his decision to hold a referendum … polarised his party … made it worse by abandoning his post — thanks for that, Sarah.

Ms Vine wisely leaves it at that so far as the Cameron contribution is concerned.

Holdenforth adds that the career of Mr Cameron following his decision to abandon ship took a turn for his worse as he became embroiled in the dubious arrangements about the financing of Liberty Steel via Greenshill.

Gosh – do we have another Horatio Bottomley at large albeit a more genteel version?

Holdenforth feels strongly about this particular scandal as it was partly responsible for the decline of that part of the UK Steel sector controlled by Mr Gupta.

Holdenforth will take what happened since the eruption of the In/Out of Europe debate as read and move on.

The Return of the Remainers

“Just remember in the winter
Far beneath the bitter snows
Lies the seed that with the sun’s love
In the spring becomes the rose”
From “The Rose” as sung by Bette Midler

Thus the Rose emerging from the frozen earth, thus the remain cause emerging from the chaos of Brexit, aided and abetted by the downfall of the leading Brexiteers- four ex Prime Ministers – Cameron, May,  Johnson and Truss, together with the ongoing contribution of the Brexit puppet master, Nigel Farage.

We at Holdenforth have been as constant as the Northern Star in our support of the remain cause.

The gist of our case was not that the EU was a flawless institution but that it was a most civilised institution to be welcomed after a millennium of war between the various European nation states, an era which ended with the most appalling slaughter in WW1 and WW2. 

A brief history of the Brexit struggle. 

“A story has no beginning or end: arbitrarily one chooses that moment of experience from which to look back or from which to look ahead”
Graham Greene, The End of the Affair

• Ahead of the 2015 General Election David Cameron committed the Tory Party to a referendum on our membership of the EU by 2017. This rash commitment was made to ward off the threat posed by Nigel Farage to the right flank of the Tory party.
• In the General Election held on July 28, 2015, the Tories secured a comfortable working majority in Parliament. On the debit side for Cameron: he had to spend much of his time between July 2015 and the fateful referendum day, June 23, 2016 advocating that the UK REMAIN in the EU.
• June 23, 2016 – In/out referendum held and narrowly but convincingly won by the Brexiteers – 52% to 48%. Cameron resigned on the same day
• A few weeks later, Mrs May, previously a lukewarm Remainer, became Prime Minister and, significantly, committed to implement the result of the referendum.
• June 8, 2017 – An ill-judged decision by Mrs May to hold a general election to strengthen her position achieved precisely the opposite – a Tory majority lost. From that date onwards Mrs May faced an uphill struggle to implement Brexit. 
• May 23, 2019 – Mrs May resigned as Prime Minister after losing the confidence of her colleagues in parliament.  She was replaced by Johnson on July 23. There followed four months of boisterous activity by Johnson to get Brexit done – a highly effective slogan which did much to secure
• the approval of parliament.
• December 12, 2019 – The Tories, led most effectively by Johnson, won the general election with an overall majority over all other parties of 80. Their success was especially notable in the Red Wall seats – seats previously held by Labour which transferred their allegiance to the Tories.
• The following 30 months were dominated by the Pandemic and by – how shall we say – the eccentric and erratic handling by Johnson of the levers of political power.
• July 22, 2022 – Johnson obliged to walk the plank by his colleagues – Gosh – as recently as that.
• September 5, 2022 – Liz Truss emerged as the winner after a painfully protracted election process 
• October 20, 2022 – Liz Truss walked the plank after a series of blunders without parallel in our long parliamentary history

A key point at this stage in our argument. From June 23, 2016 to date most politicians and most media commentators accepted that the Brexit cause was not to be reversed or even challenged and accordingly exulted in or mourned the outcome according to taste.

The way forward would be to exploit the clear opportunities afforded by Brexit.

Not so Holdenforth – from June 2016 to date we have argued that the Brexit project would end in tears – and so it has come to pass.

A word about the Farage Factor

Most observers would accept that Nigel Farage was and remains the prime mover in the electoral triumph of the Brexiteers and in what has happened since then on the Brexit front. Certainly Farage himself has made this claim over and over again in his new and very effective TV channel GB News.

As I write this blog , Farage, despairing of the failure of the past four Prime Ministers to implement the Brexit policy that was successful in the referendum, has embarked on an effective campaign to halt and reverse the uncontrolled influx of illegal immigrants, while excoriating just about everyone associated with attempts to do so.

The main targets of the abuse that comprise his stock in trade are The French and the successive hopeless Tory Prime Ministers and Tory home secretaries charged with solving the problem.

Holdenforth would like to point out that no one did more to antagonise the Senior Officials within the EU in general and with The French in particular.

Let us put the matter thus – The problems created by the large numbers of illegal immigrants arriving in the UK were to a very considerable extent created by Farage as he attacked everything associated with the EU Project. He is trying to argue that he is fighting the good fight to shore up the chaos created by others.

The truth is that he is flailing to around to cover his own tracks.

The deluded UK public is having to live with the consequences of the Farage-inspired Brexit folly.

Farage now resorts to slogans of increasing vacuity as he attempts to shore up the tattered remains of his mendacious crusade.

The enemies of Brexit are seen as globalists, a term about as useful as baddies.

So there we have it – a succession of Tory leaders starting with Cameron and on to May, Johnson, Truss and for the moment Sunak all resolved to continue the policy of throwing good money after bad as they pursue the busted flush that is Brexit.

What gives we Remainers hope now that the Brexit case will be reversed and that the UK will sooner rather than later return to the EU fold?

“Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them”
The words of Jesus at the end of his Sermon on the Mount. Matthew 8,20

Holdenforth suggests that the collective fruits of Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Farage with regard to Brexit have been – how to put it – suitable only to be sent to the dustbin of history.

“Project Fear is back – and it’s as wrong as ever”
Headline above a column by Robert Tombs in The Sunday Telegraph, 29/10/22

Above the column is a photograph of Guy Verhofstadt and like-minded colleagues addressing a public meeting in London “calling for the UK to rejoin the EU.”

In his column the Prof goes through the pro-Brexit arguments ans not unsurprisingly concludes that the case for Brexit is as strong as ever.

Holdenforth remains firmly in the Remain camp, is confident that sanity will prevail, and that the UK will rejoin the EU sooner rather than later.

An apology from HMG for the Brexit fiasco to the EU would be a good start.

“Brexit needs re-working to avoid bailout, tycoon warns”
Times headline (October 25, 2022) above a piece setting out the views of billionaire financier Guy Hands about the need to renegotiate Brexit 

Mr Hands, a private equity tycoon and  a long-term Conservative supporter, is critical of the performance of HMG under the Tories in recent years. He urges the current HMG to renegotiate Brexit.

Holdenforth suspects that the EU leaders faced with such a preposterous request would inform HMG that the arrangements which prevail in the EU are the rules – take them or leave them – but please don’t waste any more of our time.

“Frost: EU judges must keep out of Northern Ireland”
Headline above a report in the Daily Mail, October 12, 2022

A stern warning issued by Lord Frost from that most democratic of political institutions, The House of Lords.

Holdenforth would like to see a protracted period of silence from this particular source.

“Countless moderate Leavers envisaged a continuing warm and mutually beneficial relationship with Europe and many previously ardent Brexiteers now know that they were sold a pup”

Extract from a letter to The Times on October 25, 2022 from Mark Starling

Well put, Mark.  Holdenforth gladly seconds this comment.

Prospects for the Remain cause doing a Lazarus and prevailing. 

Holdenforth believes that:

• Sanity will prevail in the UK and that the UK WILL rejoin the EU.
• Wagers made at the outset of the Brexit project ought to be re-assessed, given the ongoing collapse of Brexit.

After the Summit

For the record, the summit meeting of the EU council was convened for the afternoon shift of Wednesday, April 10 – just two days before a possible no deal Brexit.

The meeting lasted well into the night shift thus testing the stamina of the leading players to the limit and edging ever closer to the deadline for the dreaded no-deal outcome.

Holdenforth was very anxious that this no deal outcome might come to pass. However we noticed that when the extension date of October 31 was announced, together with the associated terms and conditions, some commentators who had previously shared our concerns jauntily stated that they had always been confident that there would not in any circumstances be a no deal outcome.

This is known as hindsight.

The Council agreed that the UK departure date be delayed until October 31 to allow the UK to review and possibly modify its Brexit position in a way that would achieve the following:

• The deal would be approved by Parliament and be approved by the EU.
• There would not be scope for any revision of the existing May deal.
• The departure date of the UK could be brought forward in the event that the May deal secures the approval of parliament in the intervening period.
• The progress – or lack of it – by HMG in securing these two objectives to be reviewed by EU at the end of June.

What had Mrs May to say on emerging from the summit long after the midnight hour?

She was quick to voice her view, spoken more in sorrow than in anger,  that the House of Commons had failed both her and the country by refusing to endorse her Brexit deal.

In the course of her litany of reproach and regret she made it clear that her formidable energies will continue to focus on securing the departure of the UK from the EU on the basis of her deal. According to Mrs May, her deal represents the clear democratic wish of the British people to leave the EU.

(We at Holdenforth would add –  We’ll see about that.)

May believes that the departure – Brexit – should be orderly, and provide a sound basis for our future prosperity.

Holdenforth is pleased to use her words in a slightly different context as a statement of our preferred approach.

Holdenforth advocates an orderly smooth controlled departure of Mrs May from Number 10 in order to enable a start to be made on the gigantic task of rebuilding the fortunes of the UK on coherent policies.

Holdenforth continues to perceive Mrs May as a non swimmer floundering out of her depth above the vasty depths of the Mariana trench.

 What happens next?

“And time yet for a hundred indecisions
And for a hundred visions and revisions,
Before the taking of a toast and tea”

Thus TS Eliot outlining the concerns of  J. Alfred Prufrock; thus the partisans of the May deal as the UK approaches the end of the road.

There are just 6  months between now and the end of October.

Mrs May wasted no time in setting out her stall adorned with its depressing familiar produce. Undaunted by her dismal record of losing three votes out of three she will press on to deliver the Brexit referendum decision of June, 2016.

In her vision, or should we say plan, or maybe just her hoping for the best and apprehensive about the prospect of the worst, she will stay in post until:

1. Either her deal – the May deal – staggers over the line.

OR

2. There will be an extension to the extension after October 31 to allow for yet further indecisions and visions and revisions.

OR

3. The Remain cause prevails – either via a People’s Vote or a general election or both.

Holdenforth has favoured outcome 3 from the outset.

Mrs May spoke only about overcoming the obstacles to her preferred outcome and refused to contemplate other possibilities.

What about the other big players in the Brexit black farce?  What about the main opposition Party?

Well – what about the main opposition party?

What party might that be?

Mr Corbyn is said to be playing his cards close to his chest in the belief that he should keep all his options open until the last moment.

He may well be right, but his critics argue that he is too occupied and indeed pre-occupied with more peripheral matters such as the case of Mr Assange, the politics of the Middle East , and the politics of Venezuela – all doubtless worthy causes but felt by some UK voters to be a shade remote from more pressing local problems.

What about the Conservatives?

Significant numbers of Tory MPs are thought to be plotting or planning or merely hoping to succeed Mrs May in the near future as her administration draws to a close.

Holdenforth has no strong views on the matter other than to note the view of Dr Johnson – there is no settling the point of precedency between a louse and a flea. The odds for the various contenders are up on the board at your local bookie. Those under starter’s orders have one characteristic in common – all would be overstretched were they to secure election to the local community council.

Holdenforth fervently hopes that her successor will not be a no deal candidate. Don’t we have enough trouble as it is without a no deal politician in Number 10?

Meanwhile, members of the ERG have been written off a spent force by some commentators. Holdenforth is not so sure. They will be handicapped by their refusal to take part in the elections to the EU parliament – not easy to get your views across if you are sulking in your tent, but BOJO and Jake Mogg have both staying power and the essential requirement of thick skins.

And the Rest?

Mr Farage was out of his block like Usain Bolt – he launched his new party with both speed and enthusiasm and it is likely that this combination will bring its rewards in due course.

The new independents face an immediate problem in that, although a tiny group, they have to be sub-divided into the passionate apostate Tory Remainers as typified by the wonderful Mrs Soubry and the larger group of those who have deserted the Labour cause for reasons mainly associated with the perceived inadequacy of Mr Corbyn. Both sub groups face a punishing few months as they seek to project their separate identities.

A word about the forthcoming elections to the EU parliament

“It now seems almost inevitable that the UK will participate in elections to the European Parliament on May 23″
Times Leader, April 15, 2019

We can surely rely on the Times to be right on this tricky issue.

What IS clear is that these elections will proceed as per the EU rules in 27 out of the 28 current members of the EU. As I write the situation in the UK is less clear cut. Thus:

• As we have just observed, the nascent Brexit Party has made a flying start.
• The Tories are facing the worst of all possible worlds in that they are in the main unenthusiastic about the elections but are resigned to contesting them. This is not a policy calculated to persuade voters to  support them.
• The Labour Party – prospects as for the Tories but with rather more ambiguity as to its policy.

It is a rum prospect – free and fair elections, universally proclaimed as the life blood of democracy, contested without enthusiasm, a gap which may well be detected by the voters.

A word about our 73 MEPs who represent the UK.

We at Holdenforth  have been struck by the ongoing reluctance of this group to enter the Brexit fray.

Two points to note.

• Mr Farage, an MEP,  has made more impact on the course of events than the other 72 put together.
• Holdenforth will go further – this group, with the exception of Mr Farage, make the Trappist Monk community seem like noisy chatterboxes. We suspect that their collective inactivity could be traced to a hope that the problem would simply vanish. Thus far – it hasn’t.

What does Holdenforth want to happen?

We want either a peoples’ vote or, better still,  a general election.

Sadly, located as we are on the margin of the fringe of the periphery – we are flummoxed on how to trigger one or other of these highly desirable outcomes.

Any suggestions?

Closing points

To Holdenforth readers who fear that we Remainers are up against a powerful political machine – just think Mr Chris Grayling. There – you feel better already.

In some quarters there has been much talk about the failure of our political class to implement the Will of the People. Shall the Won’t of the politicians trump the Will of the people?

Holdenforth takes a simpler view – the cowardice of Mr Cameron – who he? – launched the Brexit people fiasco. The Brexiteers were more effective than the Remainers in the run up to the 2016 referendum.

Now is the time to recover our national reputation for calm common sense and civilised values and opt to remain in the EU.