Holdenforth had planned to use this blog to complete a trilogy in we examined the gaps between what our politicians had achieved as opposed to what to they intended to achieve.
Our first two efforts – on Rishi Sunak and on Keir Starmer – were relatively straightforward to write.
Thus – in the case of Mr Sunak the gap was so wide that all we had to do was to paraphrase extracts from the avalanche of abuse hurled at our hopeless PM – note – no plagiarism – we will leave that to Rachel Reeves.
However even old-world cynics like Holdenforth could not have foreseen the bile that poured out of Suella Braverman following the curt verbal P45 call from Mr S.
And we certainly did not see coming the restoration of Mr Cameron – rapidly elevated to Lord Cameron – as a key feature of the reshuffle changes following the Braverman exit stage right.
More on the Cameron /Lazarus development later in the blog
What about Sir Keir Starmer?
Rather more stability here. We noted in our previous blog that Sir Keir had just one policy – to secure the keys to Number 10 in the next election. He and his supporters have exercised sufficient control within the Labour Party to minimise any boat rocking from dissenters. He quickly and effectively showed them who was in charge. The minor hiccup that arose within the Labour party as the number of civilians killed in Gaza rose on a daily basis was quickly suppressed.
Holdenforth had originally planned – in the interests of fair play, to examine where the Liberal Democrats stood on the issue of policy and achievements.
We threw in the towel here. Quite simply no material to work with on either policy or achievement.
Instead we opted for a stroll down memory lane – Holdenforth decided instead to look back at the performance of Lloyd George – the last Liberal leader of any significance.
Here are the views of his contemporaries.
“Put the two men together in any circumstances of equality and the one would eat the other” From “Great Contemporaries” by Winston Churchill.
Churchill was comparing Lloyd George with Lord Curzon and found the talents of the former considerably greater than those of the latter.
“To see the British Prime Minister (Lloyd George) watching the company with six or seven senses not available to ordinary men, judging character, motive and sub-conscious impulse, perceiving what each was thinking and even what each was going to say next, and compounding with telepathic instinct the argument or appeal best suited to the vanity, weakness, or self-interest of his immediate auditor was to realise that the poor President (Wilson of the USA) would be playing blind man’s bluff” From Keynes’ essay on the Council of Four in Paris, 1919
The sardonic comments of a formidable intellect.
“The great English (sic) demagogue had set out solely to exert the greatest possible effect on the mass of his listeners… Regarded from this standpoint the speeches of this Englishman (sic) were the most wonderful performance for they testified to a positively amazing knowledge of the soul of the broad masses of the people …” The comments of Adolf Hitler in Mein Kampf on the speeches of Lloyd George.
It is worth noting that the eventual downfall of Lloyd George as Prime Minister was engineered by one of our more self-effacing prime Ministers, Stanley Baldwin.
A word on Brexit
The Brexit debate rumbles on. Very few now seek to argue that the UK should rejoin the EU.
The Labour MP for Torfaen (and the MP for Holdenforth) Nick Thomas-Simmonds , has been handed the mosr formidable challenge of all in the Starmer shadow cabinet, that of reaching new arrangements with the EU short of full membership.
Mr Thomas – Simmonds has our full support in this Herculean assignment.
For all practical purposes – the UK is out of and will remain out of the EU for the next few years.
For Holdenforth that leaves a little unfinished business. Prior to the referendum in 2016 we had a modest wager with a rambling colleague about the outcome. We hoped fervently for a Remain outlook – but we lost our preference and our wager. We hope to settle up before the Grim Reaper calls.
The COVID-19 Inquiry
As I write the enquiry into the effectiveness of the handling of the Covid Pandemic by HMG is getting into its stride.
Holdenforth is uneasy about the value of this enquiry and about the contribution it will make, if any, to the effectiveness of the management of future epidemics.
We have been advised that it is inevitable that at some point in the future a different but related version of the original pesky parasite will emerge to pose problems.
Will we be ready?
Thus far the Hallett inquiry seems to have provided a platform for disgruntled politicians and their SPADs to settle old scores – and, sadly but predictably some are doing thus that.
The proceedings take me back more than 60 years when I was voicing my adverse criticisms about the performance of colleagues to a senior manager.
His reply has stayed with me: “They are all useless buggers except thee and me and when I’m on my own – you’re a useless bugger”
Remind you of a contemporary soap opera masquerading as a serious exercise?
The rule of lawyers
“Britain being run by rule of lawyers” Headline in the Daily Mail – Sept 9, 2023
In the article beneath the headline Martin Beckford, Daily Mail policy editor, narrowed down the criticism to human rights lawyers and judges.
“MPs DO have a legal means of breaking the stranglehold human rights lawyers have on our democracy. So why won’t they use it?” Headline above an article by Dr Arnheim, Daily Mail, Sept 14, 2023
Holdenforth is bemused by these attacks on human rights lawyers who were simply carrying out their professional tasks. Well done you legal eagles – doing well by doing good.
It would help if politicians were to specify what is and what is not legal in clear language.
Monarchical matters
In an earlier blog we asked about what, if anything, Princess Diana and Leon Trotsky had in common.
We thought that both of them had been air brushed out of history by very effective manipulation of PR machines by their respective detractors.
We are uneasy that the unorthodox route to the throne by Camilla might be thought of by some as one of the more audacious usurpings of the crown in our 1,000 year turbulent history.
We are also distinctly uneasy about the suggestion that Charles III may be allowed to pontificate on the policy of HMG.
The elevation of plain Mr Cameron to Lord Cameron in the twinkling of an eye.
“On his first introduction to these little fellows it had seemed to Ambrose that they had touched the lowest possible level to which Humanity can descend. It now became apparent that there hitherto unimagined depths which it was in their power to plumb” The sombre thoughts of Ambrose Mulliner about his two schoolboy charges.
Holdenforth has similar views about David Cameron
The transfer of Cameron from oblivion to the Foreign Office and to The House of Lords startled even your hardened blogger.
For us it represented a transition from the – shall we say respectable – corridors of Oxford University to the darker corridors of the Arthur Daley business school. It was a squalid act even by the abysmal standard of this drowning administration.
We predict and hope that this change in title and job will end in tears.
A few closing one liners.
Boss at scandal-hit university saw pay surge by £186k
The boss in question, Alice Gast at Imperial College London, somehow managed to secure an increase in her reward package despite presiding over a shambles.
Her unkind critics tend to forget that the looting of the public purse can be arduous and time consuming.
“Wilko unions demand inquiry into stricken chain” Daily Mail headline Nov 4, 2023
Unions representing sacked workers have picked up that “£77m in dividends was dished out to the owners and shareholders of the retailer in the decade before its collapse”.
Holdenforth doubts if the requested inquiry will ever get off the ground.
The Post Office scandal.
Holdenforth gathers that the consequences of this most appalling of scandals are slowly but surely closing in on the perpetrators.
We fervently hope that those responsible – Vennells ? Crozier / – will answer for their actions.
Holdenforth urges the great British public to put pressure on the authorities to make languid inquiries such as that presided over by Sir John Chilcot to be replaced by a policy beloved by Sir Winston Churchill – Action this day.
Some old timers will recall Parkinson’s first law – “work expands to fill the time available for its completion.”
It is time that this recipe for the lining of legal pockets was repealed.
Holdenforth had hoped to get all his discontents off his chest while there is still time. Sadly Holdenforth/aka John Holden , a grizzling, grousing, griping grumbling aged malcontent who finds that he disagrees with almost everyone about almost everything still has more to say.
Just under a year ago, I published a job application in this blog for a latter-day Hercules. The remit of said employment would be to cleanse the UK’s Augean stables of all their ordure, through a process of identifying and disposing of the assorted turd-dispensers which plague our nation today, including but not limited to the BBC, the House of Lords and the management of the Charity and Higher Education Sectors.
Applicants not being forthcoming, I am now reposting the application with a broadly similar specification, although it should be observed that in the interim period the piles of manure have increased in volume, a fact which might dishearten even the hardiest of would-be heroes.
Holdenforth lists the following areas as priority problems to be tackled by the selected applicant. They are listed in the order in which they come to mind – the chaotic and neglected state of our national Augean stables made a disciplined selection process far too difficult for us.
1. To recover cash payments paid to suppliers of PPE that were way above the manufacturing costs incurred in their production.
The suppliers of this equipment would doubtless dissent, but Our Hero would collect the cash overpaid first and refer any complaints arising to an independent body.
As part of the same initiative we would ask Herc to recover cash paid out to suppliers of defective cladding that was clearly unfit for purpose and to recover from the same source the costs incurred in replacing the defective cladding with cladding that complied with all the relevant safety regulations.
How is that for a promising start?
2. To arrange for the prompt departure from senior jobs in the public sector those who have demonstrated their ineptitude and thus their unsuitability.
There is no shortage of candidates of those in this category but Holdenforth would be surprised and disappointed if Herc did not:
Dispense with the services of all the senior managers in the Post Office involved in the appalling persecution of hundreds of local post office sub masters
Ensure that former Met Commissioner Hogan-Howe was not selected to lead the national Crime Agency. Hogan-Howe’s record as the Met Commissioner for 8 years was in the same league of ineptitude as that of Cressida Dick.
Inform Duncan Selbie, the man who has been “blamed for Britain’s sluggish response to the pandemic [and who] walked away with almost half a million pounds last year” that due to an administrative error he had received not the intended P45 but a generous severance package, and that this unfortunate error would now be rectified
Remove Professor Neil Ferguson – the medical expert who combined professional ineptitude with a cavalier disregard for the isolation rules laid down by HMG – from the public payroll.
Holdenforth readers are encouraged to send their suggestions for recipients of the speedy issue of a P45 to our successful applicant. All suggestions will be carefully considered.
3. How not to run a Headhunting operation.
Holdenforth will suggest to the successful applicant that he or she speedily restore a measure of respectability to the once respected profession of head hunting.
In a previous era members of this profession were tasked to secure the best available talent to fill senior vacancies.
It would appear that latterly this profession has behaved rather like the CV19 in the extent to which it has mutated.
Herc to ensure that those charged with this crucial responsibility immediately desist from hunting air heads, dick heads, and others from dubious talent pools.
4. Speedily arrange for the privatisation of the BBC.
Holdenforth has been urging this measure for several years.
If Herc is looking for support here he need look no further than the quarter of a million or so doughty old timers anxious to hang onto the free TV licence concession arranged by HMG some years ago.
For its part the BBC is anxious to increase its income from whatever source. However ,the aged refuseniks see no reason why they should fall for the BBC nonsense about the loudly proclaimed status of the BBC as a National Treasure.
One of the favourite targets of the refusniks is Mr Gary Lineker. They – and Holdenforth- question his income of £1.36 million for his part time job. His moonlighting activities are said to bring in at least as much as his BBC income but that is a private matter between Mr Lineker and HMRC.
5. To launch and guide a political movement to close down the House of Lords’
“It is not fit that you should sit here any longer……. You shall now give place to better men”
Oliver Cromwell addressing the Rump Parliament.
Cromwell was talking to elected members of the House of Commons.
His harsh words are even more appropriate when directed at the relic that is the House of Lords
Holdenforth has long argued that:
On a busy day the House of Lords resembles an Old Folks Home
On a quiet day it resembles a morgue.
For Holdenforth the hasty and unseemly elevation of the well nourished David Frost to the House of Lords provided abundant evidence, not that any more was needed, of the sheer irrelevance of the Upper House – and of the need to terminate its existence.
6. Energy issues:
Holdenforth is sure that our selected candidate can kill two birds with one stone in this contentious area, thus:
The absurd competitive model for energy supply be consigned to the dustbin and the energy sector to be returned to the public sector.
Arrange for additional energy sources be brought speedily on stream. These sources to include fracking and nuclear plants.
More than 60 years ago I worked as a summer vacation student at the Springfields Plant located between Preston and Blackpool – it was operated by the UK Atomic Energy Authority. At that time the UK was a world leader in the generation of energy for peaceful purposes – a lead that has been sadly eroded down the years.
Ironically one of the richest sources of fracked energy is said to be adjacent to the location of the Springfield plant.
Enough said – just tell Herc to do whatever needs to be done to get fracking.
7. Put the HS2 high speed train project on hold for 5 years.
This interlude would be used to allow for the removal of the numerous senior inept managers within the UK rail sector and replaced by managers who will ensure that signals and points operate as required and that sufficient personnel are available to drive the trains.
Herc will quickly grasp that too many senior managers in the UK rail sector were attracted not by the challenge posed but by the lure of managing a monopoly and a job which combined high rewards with the very low demands – the latter achieved by ignoring the tsunami of complaints from frustrated (would be ) passengers.
Holdenforth noted that significant numbers of very high earners in the public sector were reported as being part of the High Sped Two project, a project noted for its combination of being late and over budget.
Go to it, Herc!
8. To arrange for the anti social activities of the private equity sector – aka the circling vulture sector (CV) – to be curbed.
Holdenforth has had its say about this antisocial activity in recent blogs and we acknowledge that clipping its wings will be easier said that done. Members of the CV community did not get where they are by being considerate of their fellow citizens. However Holdenforth can’t do everything – but we will insist that Herc puts effective action on this one at the top of his or her to do list.
9. To arrange for high incomes to be subject to high levels of taxation
Effective action in this area could not be simpler.
As things stand the highest rate of income tax is 40%. There are no reasons – other than a Tory reluctance to tax the rich and reluctance of the high earners to be pay a lot more tax — why this rate should not be far than 40% for those fat cats anxious to display their formidable talents at exploiting the system.
Holdenforth will ask the selected candidate to develop and put in place a tax system which will rise steeply so as to discourage fat cats from spending their time devising tax avoidance and evasion schemes.
The methodology is simple and, with Herc driving the initiative, the fat cats will quickly get the message and who knows they might even start to do an honest day’s work.
10. Public sector bonus payments to be banned.
Holdenforth suspects that the public is not pleased when informed about the large bonus payments collected by some senior managers in the public sector, especially those bonus payments made for dubious performance achievements.
The reward for good performance in the public sector would be that you get to keep your job. The penalty for poor performance to be that you don’t get to keep your job, or as Lord Sugar might put it, “You’re fired”
11. The practice of Chilcotisation in the management of public enquiries to be drastically curtailed.
“Work expands in order to fill the time available for its completion”
Parkinson’s first law
“Jarndyce and Jarndyce drones on. This scarecrow of a suit has, in course of time, become so complicated, that no man alive knows what it means..”
Charles Dickens, Bleak House
The history of painfully protracted public enquiries as exemplified in the enquiry carried out by Sir John Chilcot into the Iraq war has been well documented.
Herc would impose a completion date at the start of all such enquiries – say 3 months at the most.
His or her policy would be to ensure that that the practice of Chilcotisation was drastically curbed, that Parkinson’s first law was repealed and that cases such as Jarndyce v Jarndyce are brought to a speedy resolution.
Holdenforth has noted that the public sector is fond of protracted enquiries given that the taxpayer and/or the council tax payer will be picking up the bills submitted by members of the legal profession. The selected candidate will put a stop to this practice of robbing the many to benefit the few.
12. Restore respectability to the declining esteem in which senior managers in the Higher Education sector are held.
The Senior Managers under the microscope here prefer to be known as Vice Chancellors and in recent years they have collectively been seen to focus on enriching themselves as opposed to focusing on their core task of improving the quality of the institutions that they purport to serve.
A simple solution offers itself – the reward packages collected by Senior Managers in the HE sector to revert to the reward packages paid out in, say, 2015.
A splendid opportunity for this public spirited group to lead by example.
Action on Day One by Herc!
13. The Woke Sector
Holdenforth would like to see the activities of the woke sector curbed but we are hampered by the fact that we have only the vaguest idea of who they are and what it is that they get up to.
“Past events have no objective existence but survive only in written records and in human memories. The past is whatever the records and the memories agree upon. And since the Party is in full control of all records and in equally full control of the minds of its members it follows that the past is whatever the party chooses to make it …”
George Orwell, 1984
Holdenforth also understands that the woke sector is eager to silence those who would wish to disagree with them – a very dubious policy. If free speech means anything it means the right to say and write what others don’t want to hear.
Nye Bevan noted that “ you don’t need to muzzle sheep” – sound advice to those like Holdenforth anxious to preserve the right to assert what the wokers wish to suppress
Hercules Two will need to exercise caution when coming to grips with this tricky issue. An area for persuasion and debate and diplomacy rather than coercion.
One other tricky topic whilst we are in delicate territory, namely sexuality.
Holdenforth is now in his early eighties and he understands that activity in the field of procreation has burgeoned in recent years and that there are hitherto unimagined ways of emptying a pair of bollocks. So let it be.
The only education in these matters that I received in the mid – late 1950s was to the effect that if your aunt had bollocks she would be your uncle but she didn’t and she wasn’t – not much to go on there.
We would urge Herc to exercise caution, tact and diplomacy in his or her review of this sensitive area. He might try to reason with the LBGT sector, especially the fourth of the categories under consideration – just do whatever it is that you wish to do but please turn down the sound on your publicity machine.
Another delicate issue but one which could be made much more widely acceptable would be to persuade the Black Lives Matter movement to amend its core policy to read -“All lives matter“ . Well all lives do matter – don’t they?
14. Now for the big one – are you sitting comfortably?
A core project for Herc – get Brexit reversed – yes you heard that – get Brexit reversed.
What could be simpler?
While you are at it – Name and nail the guilty Brexiteers. Do not waste time trying to shame the guilty Brexiteers because to the guilty Brexiteers shame is an alien concept.
The UK public has had the opportunity to see at first hand the fraudulence of the Brexit campaign but more importantly the consequences – and we are still at the bottom of a painful learning curve.
15. – A huge social problem – the growth of the gambling sector
“I have many friends in politics but they would not be so friendly if my business were narcotics instead of gambling. They think that gambling is like liquor, a harmless vice, and they think narcotics a dirty business.”
Don Corleone explains his decision not to get involved in narcotics to Virgil Sollozzo in The Godfather.
Holdenforth believes that the growth of the gambling sector is now as great a threat to social stability as the equally worrying growth of the narcotics sector.
Holdenforth will ask Herc to take whatever action is necessary to curb the growth of gambling activities. It would be a useful start to make it clear to the public that the main beneficiaries in the gambling sector are those who manage the sector.
Thus Herc could open the proceedings by asking the question – and proceeding to answer it – how much of every pound that is waged is paid out in winnings?
No prizes for arriving at the correct answer.
On a not dissimilar topic – Herc could take a look at exactly what goes on in the charity sector- specifically – how much of every pound donated by the warm hearted public ends up in the hands of the intended recipients – and who gets what of the money that fails to arrive at its destination.
Again – no prizes at arriving at the correct answer.
Having established a reliable data base, Herc should ensure that measures are put in place to redress the anticipated imbalance between the rewards collected by those managing these two core activities on the one hand and the losses and disappointments of the gamblers and donors on the other hand.
16. And finally.
17. Holdenforth wonders and worries about adding the complex issue of who owns London to the problems piling up in the in tray of Herc – but wars and rumours of wars in and around the Ukraine require some answers.
It appears that “The West” – who exactly are The West? – intend to apply personal economic sanctions to prominent Russians should one Russian set foot on Ukrainian soil.
Might these sanctions be applied to the Russian oligarchs who have sought sanctuary in the welcoming arms of the City of London, economic migrants who have demonstrated their commitment to our freedoms by buying up large chunks of real estate in London?
Holdenforth would be quite relaxed if the UK decided to return this group back to their native land – but to leave their assets here to underline their recognition of the need for change.
Oh Dear – what about Chelsea FC owned by the Russian Oligarch Mr Abramovitch – might the team be sold off to defray UK war costs should “jaw jaw” degenerate into “war war”?
We shall be discussing that topic in a future blog.
Holdenforth has been uncharacteristically inactive for the past few weeks. In part our inactivity can be put down to our advancing years. However we suspect that additionally, and of greater significance, our inactivity stems from our confusion at the increasingly chaotic nature of the management of our national affairs.
In our previous blog which was placed on the net on May 24 we covered far too many issues – and we were criticised for so doing.
So – for this blog we will keep it simple and get back to our core issue – our detestation of Brexit and our wish and our hope that the return of the UK into the EU will be sooner rather than later.
In addition and to add ballast to the blog our Editor will add his thoughts about the possible consequences of the policies of HMG with regard to the control of the pandemic.
Let Holdenforth set the scene.
“Things and actions are what they are and not otherwise.” Extract from the sermons of Bishop Butler- 1740
It is not likely that Bishop Butler had in mind the arrival on the scene of the CV19 pandemic some 300 years later when he wrote his enduring aphorism back in 1740.
Nevertheless the Bishop made a sound point.
It is unfortunate that CV19 emerged and caused havoc on a global scale – but it did.
On a much smaller scale and preceded by an unseemly political struggle in the UK and across Europe – it is, in the view of Holdenforth, unfortunate that the UK has left the EU and that BoJo emphatically got Brexit done.
We have discussed the competence of HMG in dealing with the pandemic in previous blogs.
Today – we consider the consequences to date of Brexit and possible future consequences as HMG seeks to put flesh on the bones on the done Brexit.
Brexit developments in recent weeks.
In no special order:-
Free at Last – a phrase used memorably by Martin Luther King back in the 1960s in a much more edifying context.
Brexiteers continue to proclaim raucously that the UK is now free from the shackles imposed by our membership of the EU. The fact that this assertion is as mendacious today as it has been from the outset of the Brexit campaign is neither here not there.
Recent events have given further evidence, if any was needed, that BoJo has never allowed the facts to get in the way of his own political progress. As the chief architect of Brexit< BoJo has survived the aftermath of the Hancock scandal – which is more than be said for Mr Hancock.
In matters of playing away from home and indeed at times on the home front our Prime Minister has consistently and energetically led by example.
Holdenforth has not been a great admirer of the performances of Messrs Cummings and Hancock but we noted the deftness with which BoJo arranged P45s for this pair of his erstwhile close colleagues.
We also note that the tsunami of hollow claims about the liberating consequences of Brexit continues unabated.
Northern Ireland:-
“New DUP chief issues warning” “The DUP’s new leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, has warned that it is not realistic to expect stability in Northern Ireland under the terms of The Brexit deal.”
The problems created by Brexit in Northern Ireland – specifically the understandable hostility of the Unionists – may well get worse before they get better.
“The EU must stop point scoring and work with us to protect the peace”
Headline above a piece by Lord Frost – Mail On Sunday, May 16
Frost’s opening paragraph sets the tone for the rest of his article
“ Just 2 weeks ago the European Parliament finally ratified our agreement with the EU. Now we can start to make it work. This agreement gives us full control over our own laws, courts, borders and money”
(Holdenforth – pull the other one.)
Lord F goes on to argue that “Our overriding aim has always been to protect the Good Friday Agreement”
( Holdenforth – has it really?. I doubt if those who worked so hard and for so long and so courageously to secure the agreement would concur with this wholly misleading assertion.)
New Trade deals arrived at post Brexit.
Trade policies negotiated without proper scrutiny have big implications
Times headline above a report by Philip Aldrich , the Economics Editor of The Times – June 19
Aldrich makes the telling point that “Parliament gets 21 days to ratify a deal that may have taken years to negotiate. It has no power to unpick bits and pieces because removing one thread unravels the lot”
Later in his report Aldrich notes that “at times this government seems to consider trust a worthless commodity”
Anyone prepared to give Boris Johnson the benefit of the doubt on matters of trust should refer to the recent angry columns of Matthew Parris in The Times
Holdenforth gathers that a trade agreement between the UK and Australia was arrived at during a convivial dinner attended by senior politicians from the two countries. We hope that all present enjoyed the victuals but we are not persuaded that this is the ideal format to agree a trade agreement. We suspect that the amount of dotting on I’s and the crossing of T’s would have been woefully adequate.
Businesses have been brought to edge of bankruptcy and beyond by the additional costs arising from Brexit.
It was always going to be the case that Brexit would result in additional costs triggered by the ending of the previous tariff free arrangements.
The response of the BOJO team to the very real and expensive changes experienced by some companies has been to blame a combination of EU recalcitrance and the problems posed by pandemic constraints.
To quote the words of Mandy Rice-Davies in an earlier context – “Well they would, wouldn’t they”
UK membership of EU bodies established to manage and provide solutions to a wide range of issues including physical and cyber security, immigration, research, and human rights and so on and so forth.
The key point to make here is that arrangements which had taken five decades of patient discussion to establish have been wantonly disrupted – just to recover our freedom.
To take just one example – The social and political problems arising from illegal immigration have been exacerbated by Brexit – just look at the figures and the reports.
Control of the activities of criminal gangs responsible for the transport of illegal would be immigrants was never an easy thing to do.
Brexit has, for wholly predictable reasons, exacerbated these problems.
It appears to Holdenforth that France is readier than was previously the case to ease back on the activities of the gang bosses.
We could go on – and on – on – but enough already. You get our drift.
The contention of Holdenforth remains that the Brexit cause was a squalid power grab secured by squalid politicians for squalid ends
Any questions?
Before we hand over to our editor – one interesting development.
£100 k a year – but on the brink of burning out.
Headline in The Sunday Times- May 9
The Sunday Times devoted a full page to the increased demands being made on the younger members of the legal profession triggered by a sharp increase in the amount of legal work available.
The sub heading below the headline read:-
“Working 15-hour days at home is pushing junior lawyers to the edge”
Well it would wouldn’t it?
The report went on to note that reward packages had also increased significantly to match the increased demand. “ Young lawyers are handsomely rewarded for their suffering.
Newly qualified lawyers – Holdenforth italics -at the so called magic circle firms earn about £100k.
Holdenforth would be interested to hear from young legal eagles about the accuracy of the ST Report.
Now over to our editor.
The Delta Variant Gets a Helping Hand
To begin with, if we look at the mortality rates from COVID-19 per million in each country with a population of over 5 million, the UK sits fourteenth, but is the highest (worst) of any Western European and/or G7 nation. That said, in the six-week period between May 2nd and June 12th, the UK recorded a comparatively modest 372 deaths from the virus, far less than most of its continental peers.
Three factors have changed all that. Firstly, the reopening of the hospitality sector in mid-May, which (the two metre rule and table service notwithstanding) inevitably increased the spread of the virus. Secondly, and critically, the government delayed blocking flights from India (where the highly contagious Delta variant was rampant) until April 23rd, at least two weeks after it was clear that an immediate ban on flights from the country was essential. As a result, by early June the Delta variant was accounting for over 90% of UK cases. Thirdly, and as cases continued to soar, the government confirmed that a raft of pilot sporting events could proceed with crowds of 10,000 or more. Now, while the virus is less efficient at spreading outdoors, a fairly inefficient virus would still achieve reasonable takeup given that the crowds were still in very close proximity, especially before and after the game.
Hence, in the week ending 17th July, we have already reached a point where we are at over 280,000 weekly recorded infections (the highest level at the world at the present time, and the highest in the UK since mid-January), over 4,000 weekly hospital admissions from the virus (highest since late-February) and nearly 300 weekly deaths (highest since late-March).
And it is at this point that the government deems it fit to abandon all the remaining measures which have in various ways constrained the virus, and leaving it to its own devices. Professor Chris Whitty has warned that the number of people in hospital with coronavirus could reach “quite scary” levels within weeks: certainly, my own models suggest that is the case.
To begin with, let us look at the rise in the number of cases. In the last two weeks, week on week growth has been in excess of 30%: below peak increases in recent weeks of 67%, but resolutely and robustly upwards. Never mind; let us assume that, under the current conditions, those percentages start to decrease, and those increase stop in a mere two weeks time – at that point we would have some 350,000 cases per week. But it will not stop there, because we then have to factor in growth rates resulting from the “not our problem” espoused by the government, so that from mid-August it is highly likely that we will have considerably in excess of 1 million cases per week.
Now, even though hospitalisations as a proportion of cases are continuing to decrease, if the current trend line continues that we can expect to see over 11,000 hospitalisations from COVID-19 per week throughout August.
The same applies, sadly, to mortality. Although this has fallen to around 0.2% of diagnosed cases (from around 2.0% at the end of February) and continues to fall, slowly, we can expect to see approximately 10,000 more deaths from the virus between now and the end of September alone. It should be pointed out that although well over 90% of UK adults over the age of 60 have received both vaccinations, there are over 525,000 such individuals in the UK who have opted not to be vaccinated: around three quarters of these (390,000) will not yet have had COVID-19. Unless the government reverses its approach, I would grimly but confidently expect the majority of these – and a significant majority of these – to contract COVID-19 over the next six months or so.
“Here” is the outcome of the various elections held on May 6 across most of the UK – none in Northern Ireland.
Let us start by summarising the main points to emerge from the tsunami of results.
* The top story – the overwhelming victory of the conservative candidate in the Hartlepool by-election. Just to remind ourselves: The Conservative candidate secured 52% of the vote, a majority of just under 7,000, and a swing of 23 % to the Tories.
* A general improvement in the position of the Tories in England
* A strong showing by the SNP which took it tantalisingly close to a majority in the Scottish parliament. We should note that the outcome of the election in Scotland triggered an assertion by the SNP that there would be a second referendum on the issue of independence once the pandemic had been brought under control. Mr Johnson responded with a prompt response that there would NOT be a second referendum.There, for the moment, the matter rests. We at Holdenforth are content to remain aloof from this particular skirmish but before we take our leave we would point out that:
The case for Scotland to leave the UK is at least as strong as the case for the UK to leave the EU.
The commitment of Ms Sturgeon to the cause of independence for Scotland has been commendably consistent throughout her time in politics.
To put it mildly the commitment of Mr Johnson to the Brexit cause owes much more to his opportunism than to his cloudy political principles.
And just one more thing – were the cause of Scottish independence to prevail – Ms Sturgeon would quite rightly seek membership of the EU for Scotland. A happy ending if achieved.
* The commendable improvement in the position of the Labour Party in Wales, attributable by many, including Holdenforth, to the excellent performance of Labour under Mark Drakeford since the arrival on the scene of the pandemic. Mr Drakeford has been consistently effective in his calm persuasive impressive leadership.
On a discordant note Holdenforth peevishly suggests that the multiplicity of elections was capable of another explanation other than the claim that you can never have too much democracy. This alternative explanation is that this raucously proclaimed assertion about more democracy was, is and will continue to be a cover for a vast job creation scheme for actual and would be politicians anxious secure a cushy number on the public payroll.
One by-product of the outcome of the elections has been an outburst of in-fighting at the top of the Labour Party followed by yet more internecine arguments between the Corbynite faction and the Starmer faction as to who was responsible for the poor electoral performance and what should be done to improve its performance.
The image of the Labour Party was not helped by the inept performance of Sir Keir Starmer as he sought to remove his Deputy, Angela Rayner, from her job.
Before we move on to our main theme – let me say that here in Wales I voted the full Labour ticket in the local elections for the Senedd, the Torfaen council and the police commissioner.
I may have missed a couple of voting opportunities because of the sheer complexity of the options on offer. In additional I strongly oppose slates of candidates. For me this system is likely to produce representative assemblies similar to those observed in dictatorships – replete with rows of docile nonentities.
I propose to take as my text for this blog the speech made by Nye Bevan to the Labour Party conference in November, 1959 following the heavy loss by the Labour Party in the general Election held the previous month.
Bevan’s speech was superb, one of his greatest and one of his last – he died of cancer just seven months after making the speech.
I urge all supporters of the Labour Party – young and old – to get hold of a copy and read it. If I had the power to do so I would insist that leaders of the current Labour party – of the left persuasion and of the right (wing) persuasion be required to write it out a few times – but I don’t have the power to do so.
Let me quote from the 1959 speech:
“One of the reasons why we have got into trouble in the last few weeks was because one or two people rushed too early into print in order to try and alter in their minds the programme we put before the country at the last election.”
Sir Keir Starmer and Mrs Angela Rayner – please note.
“We are a Party that stands for the redress of discontent and the wrongs caused by discontent”
“You cannot give me a single illustration where representative government has been rendered helpless because the representatives of the people asked for too much”
And a most perceptive inspiring closing section:
“I have enough faith in my fellow creatures in Great Britain to believe that when they have got over the delirium of the television, when they realise that that new homes that have been put into are mortgaged to the hilt, when they realise that the moneylender has been elevated to the highest position in the land… when they realise that all the tides of history are flowing in our direction, .. that we represent the future: then, when we say it and mean it, then we shall lead our people to where they deserve to be led!”
In this blog Holdenforth asks the leaders of the Labour Party to abandon their self-indulgent destructive divisive mutual antagonisms and instead identify and focus on seeking effective remedies for the many injustices that plague our society.
We will go further. Party members should note which leaders and would be leaders in the coming demanding months seek division rather than tackling the many serious social and economic problems that face the country – and then suggest to the offenders that they seek their political fortunes elsewhere.
“Why I fear the Kamikaze Left could plunge my party into EXTINCTION”
Headline – including the capitals at the end – above a two-page article by Tony Blair in The Daily Mail in which he pleads for a re-positioning of the Labour Party from its Corbyn slot in the wilderness towards the middle ground of politics.
It is tempting fate to take issue with the most successful leader in the history of the Labour Party.
And yet Holdenforth is uneasy about his excessive use of terms which are vague and which lack appeal. His book, A Journey, published in 2010 was bursting with the words Modernise, Progressive, Radical and Reform. His book would have been much shorter – and more effective – had these four words been deleted.
Let Holdenforth now suggest a selection of issues that the Labour should consider championing in the next year or so.
1. The threat posed by CV19 and its various burgeoning variants and / or mutations. The pandemic continues to dominate the lives of all of us.
I urge the Labour Party to follow the example of Mr Drakeford. As noted, Mr Drakeford has been consistently effective in his calm persuasive impressive leadership and by his insistence that policy be driven by the evidence.
2. Housing issues. This is probably the worst national scandal of all and the one most in need of cleansing.
Most of us are familiar with the disturbing facts that have emerged following the horrific fire at Grenfell Tower. The disturbing facts surround the discovery that the use of defective – and cheaper – materials for cladding purposes has been widespread.
So far – so bad.
As I write it appears that the various managers responsible for the scandal have made themselves scarce whilst the innocent occupants find themselves responsible for installing new and safe – and very expensive – new cladding.
3. The performance of the NHS. Assertion – the nation is united in its admiration of the NHS because of its performance throughout the pandemic.
Holdenforth says – well, up to a point.
We at Holdenforth can see why the NHS Hospital Service deserves the accolade.
We are rather less sure about the services provided by General Practitioners, although we understand the reasons why the GPs erected formidable, indeed almost impenetrable, barriers between themselves and their patients.
We are content to allow the contribution made by GPs throughout the pandemic to be considered by the planned enquiry into how effectively the pandemic was managed.
For now we urge HMG and the Labour Opposition to persuade our GPs to re-engage with the NHS in general and with their patients in particular and return to the system that we all know and love – a face to face consultation – with safety as always to be paramount – to replace the current virtual sessions.
4. What about the aged, specifically the care of the aged ;
“All the world’s a stage And all the men and women merely players: The have their exits and their entrances; And one man in his time plays many parts, His acts being seven ages”
In “As You Like It”, Shakespeare proceeds to look at the seven acts.. Puking infant, whining school boy, the lover sighing like a furnace ( Holdenforth – yes please) the soldier – full of strange oaths, the justice – in fair round belly, the lean and slippered pantaloon – the stage currently occupied by Holdenforth, and
“Last scene of all is second childishness and mere oblivion: Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything”
There is currently a lively public debate as to exactly how care for the aged is to be funded. As an octogenarian I take a special interest in this matter.
There is no dispute as to the need for the old timers to be cared for.
The point at issue is – who foots the bill?
Opinions vary – some argue that care packages should not be means tested; others argue that the recipients should foot the bill until their resources have been exhausted.
Holdenforth favours a means test approach.
One other point here. Some old timers, made fearful by what they have seen and read about the gloomy goings on in some care homes, are said to be willing to be fast tracked through the seventh age of man.
For those who favour this option – and Holdenforth is firmly in this camp – a Nembutal pill will avoid the need to take a trip to Switzerland.
We hasten to add that we would not seek to impose this outcome on those prepared to experience the alternative painful and possibly painfully protracted alternative.
5. The case to impose high super taxes on the super-rich. Somewhat fortuitously, the Sunday Times has just published its list of the super-rich – the billionaires.
Coincidentally some in the media, mindful that not everyone approved of the wealth flaunted by the super-rich, were quick to argue that nothing should be done to curb the work of the super-rich in creating wealth for the common good.
Holdenforth has never been persuaded by this special pleading. We accept that the super-rich are veritable Stakhanovites – but only to create wealth for themselves.
Holdenforth suggests the introduction of a new tax structure for the super-rich – tax rates at or close to 100% to be set for the corporate thieves; these rates to stay in place until senior managers grasp that they had been appointed to the job to work for the prosperity of the organisation rather than exploiting the various loop holes in the tax arrangements.
Ruthless high tax rates to be enforced by an effective HMRC.
Holdenforth would understand if some of the super-rich opted to seek new pastures in search of more sympathetic governments – so be it.
6. Privatise the BBC and nationalise the UK rail sector.
Next.
7. Outlaw the practice of setting complex bonus arrangements for senior managers. The reward for effective performance to be that the effective managers get to keep their jobs.
For the ineffective – a prompt P45.
8. Addressing Revolving Door Syndrome
“Myself when young did eagerly frequent Doctor and Saint and heard great argument About it and about: but evermore Came out by the same door where in I went” Omar Khayyam
The Labour Party should campaign for effective measures to end the Revolving Door syndrome.
There has been a great deal of media discussion in recent years about this practice, whereby senior mangers leave the public sector and move speedily and seamlessly – and profitably – across into the private sector.
Nice work if you can get it.
Mr David Cameron can supply further details on request.
There are several other issues which I covered in detail in my previous blog which the Labour Party would do well to address, not least poor performers in top jobs, the gambling sector, the charity sector, the management of the higher education sector and the role of the House of Lords.
We could go on – and on – and on – but you get the message. There is no shortage of areas of our national life that are ripe to be reformed for the benefit of the many and for the curbing of the greed of the few.
Holdenforth begs a revitalised Labour Party, a party originally formed to remedy social and economic injustice, to eschew infantile squabbles and embrace the task of eliminating the many injustices that stain our society.
“Here at The New Statesman we are committed to analysing and explaining the forces shaping the world today. Our finely written deeply reported journalism will continue to question those in power regardless of their politics and to tell the stories that you need hear.
We are delighted to say that The New Statesman has just won the magazine of the year ….”
Thus The New Statesman as it seeks – and fails – to persuade Holdenforth to renew its subscription.
Holdenforth can say “hear, hear” to the sentiments modestly proclaimed by the NS. For our part we strive strenuously to analyse and explain, but we are not confident that our reporting, largely borrowed from the morning papers, can be described as deep.
What with one thing and another the UK is facing a difficult future that is brimming with formidable problems. The media, HMG and politicians across the political spectrum collectively resemble a flock of headless chickens as they gallop from studio to studio to proclaim their varied – and mutually exclusive – solutions to these formidable problems. Their collective energy, always high, is especially so in the run up to the variety of elections beloved by the aspiring politicians and by the commentariat but rather less so by the electors.
Holdenforth understands that all of us are free to contribute to the confusion – so here goes.
In this blog we will look at the more significant problems that are in the in the in-tray of HMG in general and of its first minister in particular – currently Mr Boris Johnson.
To simplify matters we will assume that Holdenforth will be competing in these elections under the banner of The Holdenforth Tendency and so what follows will be our manifesto.
“Things don’t matter politically until suddenly they do.” Daniel Finkelstein, The Times, April 27.
The gist of the column by the doyen of columnists is that the only predictable element in politics is unpredictability.
Lord Finkelstein ends on a gloomy note at least so far as Mr Johnson is concerned: “ the flip side of the rules not applying to Johnson is that something truly unexpected at a truly unexpected moment could one day do him in.”
In this blog we are more concerned to flag up the problems rather than to suggest solutions – that is where Hercules will come in.
Let us set the scene.
“Augeus was the king of Elis in ancient Greece and he had a problem. His problem was that he owned 3000 oxen whose stalls had not been cleansed for 30 years. If you do the calculation you will see that Augeus had on his hands, metaphorically, and, arguably, literally, a lot of bullshit. He, King Augeus, arranged with Hercules that if he could clean the said stalls in a single day, he would receive 300 oxen in return, ie a straight 10% cut. Hercules succeeded by resorting to a highly imaginative irrigation technique, and went on to claim the rewards from the contract. King Augeus, like many of his fellow monarchs at the time and since, was not averse to a spot of sharp practice and queried the terms of the deal (were they in writing? – the text does not make this clear) and the upshot was that Hercules remained oxenless.
The term Augean has come to mean filthy, difficult and bereft of reward, the perfect contrast to the cushy number. Hercules had landed a job which combined high demand, zero reward and, another common feature, a lot of bullshit to clear away.”
Extract from “A Cushy Number” by John Holden aka Holdenforth
Holdenforth contends that the UK is replete with formidable problems. For now we will do little more than catalogue them and leave the required actions to deal with them to an as yet unidentified modern Hercules.
A selection of issues that Holdenforth would like to tackle.
1. The ongoing pandemic
This issue continues to dwarf all others. The vicious virus, the malevolent microbe, the pesky parasite never rests, is on the go 24 hours a day 365 days a year to wreak havoc.
How do those charged with the responsibility of controlling the pandemic strike the best balance between on the one hand throttling the virus and thereby throttling the economy and on the other hand relaxing the rules governing social interaction and thereby affording COVID19 (and its various mutant strains) to wreak further havoc? Tricky.
Governments of all categories around the world have the same aim – to get on top of and to stay on top of COVID19 – before it gets on top of them in this 21st century saga of the survival of the fittest.
Holdenforth watched Mr Johnson last week on PMQ as he sought to defend the record of his government as to the right balance to strike.
Comments on his performance varied from “well done sir “ from his supporters to “ you lying bastard” from those less generously disposed.
Holdenforth now looks forward to the outcome of the plethora of the elections scheduled to be held later this week. It will fascinating to listen to the explanations from the winners and the losers after the results have been declared. Sadly we suspect that the Holdenforth Tendency Party will secure little support at the polls but time is short and we have to try to get our show on the road.
2. The problems at the BBC.
Holdenforth has been very critical of the performance of the BBC in recent years. We have argued that the most sensible solution to most of the problems at the BBC would be to privatise it.
Over the years the BBC has demonstrated a remarkably consistent performance in one area, namely its ability to lavish praise upon itself. A National Treasure is just one of the terms widely deployed by the BBC to describe the BBC.
But – does today’s BBC really merit the self-serving opinions of the BBC about the BBC?
A few years ago there was a media stir following the release of information about who got what at the BBC:
“ To discuss my salary and how I’m worth every penny, I’m joined by my mother…
“ And now my male colleague will read the autocue more expensively”
“ And could you please send the Brexit bill to Gary Lineker,c/o the BBC…”
The above 3 quotes were taken from Matt cartoons in The Daily Telegraph during revelation week. As always Matt got to the heart of the matter.
“BBC chief’s warning over growing assault on truth” Headline in the Daily Mail, May 3.
The report under the headline noted that “The director-general of the BBC has warned that a growing assault on truth poses a threat to societies and democracies around the world”
Holdenforth wonders when, if ever, under its present sui generis arrangement, the BBC will devote the same zeal to examining the weaknesses within its own internal affairs that it devotes to examining the weaknesses that it identifies and exposes elsewhere.
A few years ago there was speculation in the media as to the identity of the eminent person who had secured a super injunction to forbid any mention of his alleged playing away from the matrimonial home .
The eminent man anxious to protect his privacy was eventually revealed as being Mr Andrew Marr and it turned out that his sexual activities had not been particularly exciting by the exacting standards of today.
What startled some on the outside of the BBC was not the extra marital activities – no big deal there – but rather that the BBC continued to employ in a senior capacity a man who had secured the most despised of sanctions by journalists – a super injunction.
Marr continues to front the Sunday morning programme – the Andrew Marr show.
So – let the BBC be sold off to the highest bidder. At the very least we will then learn what that most discerning of judges- the free market – will decide what the BBC stars are really worth.
3. The House of Lords
The performance of the House of Lords deserves a place in the Richard Littlejohn category – “You couldn’t make it up. “
The spectacle of the unelected members of the House of Lords lecturing the rest of world about western values and about democracy is too absurd for words.
A leisure centre where the failed politicians and the obedient party hacks of yesteryear can reap their generous reward for services rendered. The very heartland of partisan cronyism.
That personification of British hypocrisy, Mr Pecksniff, would struggle to defend it. Enough already – put this decrepit relic out of its misery – Abolish it, the sooner the better.
4. Poor performers in high places
The press have had great fun in recent in recent years by exposing the startling ineptitude of significant numbers of senior managers in a wide range of public sector organisations, private sector companies and quite a few in the no mans’ land between the two – quangoland.
There does appear to be a problem with dislodging the bunglers from their coveted jobs, and Holdenforth would like to see the process of sacking them speeded up – we must not allow the search for perfect solutions to slow down the need for the urgent handing out of P45s.
Rather than rely on generalisations – how about a few names?
Paula Vennells – Holdenforth notes and applauds the speed with which Paula Vennells vanished from the scene when the true extent of her appalling performance whilst CEO at the Post Office become known.
Holdenforth also believes that the eventual outcome of her startling and insensitive mismanagement will need to be rather more of a deterrent to others than the withdrawal of her OBE. We stop short at suggesting a return to capital punishment – we pride ourselves on our civilised standards – but the Holdenforth Tendency Party would insist on rather more effective measures.
So strongly did we and do we feel on this point that we wrote to The Times. The letter was not published but we said:
“The Times is to be commended for its reporting of the Post Office treatment of postmasters and for its leader on the scandal headed “Justice At Last.” To quote from your leader -” One of the greatest miscarriages of justice in British legal history.”
I have just one reservation about your leader. The innocent postmasters were not victims of a failed computer system because computers do not send people to prison. They were the victims of criminally negligent actions by senior Post Office managers.
I hope that the measures taken to tackle the issues arising from this appalling miscarriage of justice will combine urgency with a resolve to ensure that those responsible are made to answer for their actions.
Responsibility starts at the top.”
Holdenforth understands that quite a number of senior managers with well documented evidence of responsibility for failure on a mega scale are in the process of returning to the scenes of their previous misdemeanours presumably relying on the short collective memory of the public. Examples include:
Neil Woodford
Andy Hornby
Matt Ridley
Fred Goodwin
Jeff Fairburn
Sanjeev Gupta
Holdenforth readers will have their own views about those who ought to be deleted from the list of those seeking a return to lucrative pastures.
For the moment we are simply arguing for rather more effective screening by those charged with the responsibility of filling senior management jobs.
5. The Management of the Higher Education Sector
In recent blogs Holdenforth has drawn attention to the habit of rather too many University Vice Chancellors to divert funds intended to improve the education of students to their own private bank accounts.
Holdenforth had understood that Vice Chancellors had got the message that they really ought to cut down on the looting but:
“University that’s charging £280k vice-chancellor less rent than its students” Headline in the Daily Mail, May 3
The report under the headline notes that “The University of Chester is spending more than £25,000 on reconfiguring two offices so that Professor Eunice Simmons has somewhere to stay on Campus.”
What about those looking after those hoping to get to University?
A recent report in The Times (April 24) details the extent to which senior managers in schools had followed the example of the Vice Chancellors and looted the system.
One example quoted in the report caught our eye.
“The second -best paid leader Sir Kevin Satchwell, executive head of the Thomas Telford School in Shropshire, moved up to at least £291k. Although he is head of only one school, a trust (Trust !) spokesman said that about half his salary was for leading the separate five-school Thomas Telford multi academy trust as an executive advisor. “
The Holdenforth Tendency Party will work tirelessly to ensure that these latter day looters are shown the door.
6. Gambling With Their Futures
It is clear that recent efforts by the Gambling Commission have had little impact on addressing the scale of problem gambling in the UK, which has been further accentuated as punters try to recoup the losses incurred through furlough and redundancy in the online casinos and betting shops.
Indeed, this trend is particularly noticeable in the case of online betting, where gross gambling yield in the UK rose from £171 million in March 2020 to £217 million in November 2020. In the same time period, slots and casino yield rose from £223 million to £243 million, while Camelot happily announced a further 1.3 million online registrations for The National Lottery.
The Holdenforth Tendency party will seek to curb the gambling sector, both online and in the betting shops.
7. The Charity Sector
The position of the Holdenforth Tendency Party on charity is quite clear – strict controls to be put in place to ensure that all donors and indeed the wider public are clear about one aspect of charity – how much of every pound collected is received by the intended recipients
Oh – and while we are on the subject – regulators to ensure that charity workers do not exploit their positions in order to secure unsavoury benefits.
“People of the same trade seldom meet together but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public”
Adam Smith – written 250 years ago.
Holdenforth was saddened but not surprised by the attempts of some of the wealthier football teams in Europe to set up a separate competition suitably protected to ensure the continuing domination of the clubs by the simple expedient of banishing the threat of failure.
Accordingly we were pleased by the response of the supporters to oppose the plan – but unhappy with the robust protest outside Old Trafford. The Holdenforth Tendency is a party of law and order.
At this point our stock of zeal for social and political reform began to run out and we found ourselves reduced to shouting slogans.
To take just one example – There has been much comment in the media about the need to cut down on sleaze and cronyism and nepotism. We suspect that this will be easier said than done.
When does sleaze cross the line into illegality?
How do we distinguish between your cronyism and mine? My scope for cronyism has been severely curtailed by my imprisonment at home throughout the pandemic.
Much better to stay on the firm ground of the very tangible issues selected for urgent treatment.
And to end. It has been reported that one profession that has blossomed during the pandemic has been the legal profession. We have no wish to cross swords with this formidable profession. However the Holdenforth Tendency would insist that lawyers shake off their traditional lethargy and adopt the professional motto that in these turbulent times – justice delayed is justice denied.
The pandemic has now been with us for a year or so. The media in all their splendid diversity are replete with accounts of what has happened and who was to blame and with their equally diverse prognostications of what is about to happen.
Holdenforth is clear – we owe it to our readers to give our account of what happened , our view of where we are and our thoughts on where we might be going.
It will not be easy job to cram all of this into a brief blog but Holdenforth has never shirked difficult challenges – and never will.
We will make things easier for ourselves by limiting the blog to the impact of the virus and we will resist the temptation to stray into areas which intrigue us but which are outside our self-imposed boundaries.
So – nothing about Woke – nor about the shaky performance of the BBC – nor about the alleged Cosmo Smallpiece – aka Les Dawson – activities of Alex Salmond – nor about the perceived assaults on free speech – nor about the fact that the Daily Mail is understandably on the trail of Tom Watson – we hope that they catch up with him – nor about Brexit but you get the picture.
Holdenforth can discipline itself when the need arises.
With the wisdom of hindsight – always a useful asset – some argue that HMG was dilatory in grasping the magnitude of the threat posed by COVID- 19 and possibly as a consequence dilatory in taking the actions required to minimise the threat.
Holdenforth is not convinced that either of these charges can be made to stick. The emergence of the threat was not immediate and dramatic but rather was gradual and confused. Accordingly it was reasonable to gather as much data as possible before preparing action plans to combat the virus.
As the key points about the nature of the virus and, crucially, about the transmission mechanism of the virus became clear, so the most effective method of controlling the spread of the virus became clear – implement a ruthless code of social confinement – the less social interaction the better in terms of minimising the infection rate.
A league table of vulnerability was quickly established. The key measure here was not vulnerability to infection but vulnerability to death caused by infection. To no ones’ surprise the aged were top of the league but this was no comfort to this octogenarian.
Again – and to no ones’ surprise – it quickly became apparent that the actions required to throttle the virus would also throttle the economy.
Sound decision making has always been and always will be a key element – possibly the key element – in the tool bag of the politician.
How and where do you strike the balance between the interests of the old and the interests of the young so as to optimise the national situation?
Who should come first – the old timers or the rest of the population?
Holdenforth can only speak for itself here – we oldies have had our innings – and Holdenforth diffidently suggests that should a conflict of priorities arise – give priority to the next generation and not to the last one.
Which groups have emerged from the ordeal with credit and with well deserved plaudits?
The boffins
It quickly became apparent that the most effective way out of the pandemic would be the development of an effective vaccine. Holdenforth is happy to award plaudits to the medical scientists around the world who have done just that – developed a variety of effective vaccines . This splendid group worked tirelessly to achieve this most demanding objective on a very tight timescale.
Well done the boffins.
On a parochial note – Holdenforth is pleased to report that he has had jab 1 and, just like HM The Queen, felt no ill effects afterwards.
He was jabbed again on March 4 and feels suitably protected.
The organisers of the mass vaccination programme across the UK – quite simply a superb performance.
Any other groups to be singled out for splendid work as perceived by Holdenforth?
In the order in which they come to mind:
*The refuse collectors:
*The supermarket drivers
*Our local pharmacist for services and support way over and above the call of duty.
We could go on and on and on but the main point to note is that the response of most individuals and most groups has been civilised and selfless and heart warming.
The communicators
We have in mind here the scientific managers selected to stand on both sides of Mr Johnson as he has outlined the gist of the situation before inviting his more numerate colleagues to present the details. In addition the numbers’ boys have been required to field the tricky questions fired by the inquisitive media representatives.
We have been impressed by the collective performance of this group of hybrid scientists / communicators as they patiently sought to explain the developing picture of the activities of the pesky parasite COVID-19 as it did its utmost to dig in wherever it could find a host. Well done Prof Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance – the latter known as the knight of the doleful countenance.
The traditional media
This group , drawn from the newspapers and from the broadcasting media, has broadly behaved as per the directions of their various owners and controllers.
The BBC representatives have come under fire as being allegedly left wing in bias. Holdenforth was never able to discern this bias. The only bias that I detected – and still detect – was the readiness of many in the senior echelons of the BBC to exploit any and every opportunity to line their pockets – but I digress.
Thus the right wing papers have been generally supportive of the work of HMG and the left wing press has been rather more critical.
No change there.
The Daily Mail when reporting on the actions taken by HMG has at times suggested that the paper is on the brink of a nervous breakdown – fury one day at the reluctance of HMG to open up the economy, fury on the next day following news of an increase in the numbers of the aged being called to the great care home in the sky.
One day – The Mail bellows – what about our time honoured freedoms?
Next day – The Mail at the same decibel count – what about the old folk?
The wild west pastures of social media.
How does Holdenforth view this raucous mutinous sector?
A tricky one.
On the one hand we are pleased that the social media provide an uncensored platform for everyone – and that has got to be a welcome development in an era of increasing intolerance.
On the other hand the froth content of much that appears on social media is depressingly high – Smith agrees with what Jones has said and Jones in turn agrees with what whoever has said whatever it was that had been said – a vast congested throng of little Sir Echoes.
Now for the really tricky question – How have the decision makers performed?
We have in mind here those members of HMG led energetically, if not always effectively, by Boris Johnson. To be precise the ministers actually responsible for medical and closely related matters.
A few points to get out of the way before we get into the key areas
* So far as the public is concerned the responsibility for dealing with the problems posed by COVID-19 in the UK has been perceived as being limited to BOJO and a tiny number of colleagues , notably Messrs Hancock and Williamson,
* The perception of HMG as a one man band has been increased by the ubiquity of BOJO across the UK, and always with a camera conveniently to hand.
* Holdenforth has been anxious about the extent to which today’s favoured advisors have become tomorrow’s outcasts.
Who can forget the forlorn sight of Mr. Cummings trudging down Downing Street with a bag containing among other things his P45?
Holdenforth gathers that this uncertainty remains a feature of life around Mr Johnson as Ms Symonds acquires more influence.
All riveting stuff but surely not conducive to calm considered analysis followed up by effective action to tackle the agreed difficulties.
So how has HMG performed as regards its actions in dealing with the pandemic?
Holdenforth has to say – and it pains us to say it given our long standing antipathy to BOJO – not all that badly.
What about the large scale purchase of items such as face masks required to minimise person to person transmission of the virus?
There have been allegations that corners have been cut in the need to speed up the supply of essential items. Worse – allegations that profit margins have been massively increased in the quest to cut delivery times. Worse still that lucrative contracts have been awarded to cronies.
Holdenforth has no idea about the extent, if any, of any sharp practices in this contentious area.
However we can imagine the stresses on the responsible public sector purchasing functions as they try to reconcile the competing demands of complying with the rules with trying to placate the groups alarmed by the increasing flow of the aged to their last resting place. Suffice it to say that we will play little Sir Echo to BOJO – put the issue onto the back burner until we have shown CV 19 who is the boss in these parts.
What about the contribution of the devolved administrations?
Holdenforth believes that the situation here has been patchy.
Thus:
Wales. Our Mr Drakeford has been a model of precision throughout the pandemic – arguing convincingly that the Senedd would follow the facts. Holdenforth writes as a man born and bred in Lancashire and who has only lived in Wales for 60 years – a newcomer so to speak.
Northern Ireland. Sadly the problems posed by the pandemic have had to be tackled alongside the formidable problems raised by Brexit and even by rumours of problems with the Good Friday agreement.
Scotland. Holdenforth had supposed that the Scottish Parliament was coping well with the pandemic but recent revelations suggest that the minds of the senior members of the SNP have been on matters not related to the pandemic.
Holdenforth will be watching the progress of the lively altercation in Scotland and will report to our readers in due course.
So – the devolved administrations – help or hindrance?
You tell us!
What about the money?
In my book- “ A Cushy Number”- I discussed the demands on the holders of a range of jobs and the rewards collected by the job holders.
The consequences of the pandemic in terms of its impact on job rewards has varied widely.
Thus:
* Public sector workers have been largely unaffected.
* Millions of people have received furlough protection payments
* Substantial numbers of self employed workers have received little or no support and have experienced very real and continuing hardship
* Lawyers will have experienced boom conditions as the claims and counter claims have required the intervention of the law.
* It may be the case that some suppliers have experienced boom conditions as purchasing standards have been relaxed to speed up supplies
* Sadly the pressure of events is leading to wide scale closures of once healthy businesses. Why so? Quite simply the money has run out.
Where does the Labour Party stand as regards its performance during the pandemic?
Holdenforth believes that Sir Keir Starmer has done a reasonable job in the House of Commons in exposing weaknesses in the policies and performance of HMG as regards the pandemic.
Unfortunately for Sir Keir, rumours of plots and counter plots within the party continue to emerge and this makes for problems in seeking to present Labour as a united party with a coherent approach to the problems posed by the pandemic.
Sir Keir recently made a speech in which he outlined the priorities of any future Labour Government. In it there was nothing to object to but little to enthuse about.
Let me indulge in a little name dropping. Back in September 1963 I was in the conference hall in Scarborough when Harold Wilson, in his capacity as the newly elected leader of the Labour Party made his stirring speech on the theme of the white heat of technology.
Sir Keir could do worse than revisit the event and see how he might derive some political and electoral advantage.
Q- Will things be the same again post the pandemic? Will there be a return to business as usual?
A- Holdenforth says the answer to both questions is an emphatic no.
Q- “Exactly what will change and how and why and over what time scale?” A question fired in by the Laura Kuensberg of the world of blogging.
A- Watch this space
Counterpoint
Never let it be said that Holdenforth is not an open-minded platform. Here its author generously permits its editor to have his say, with a few counterarguments to the above comments which broadly commend the response to the pandemic of the Johnson administration.
When assessing the performance of the UK government with regards to the control of the COVID-19, it is dangerously seductive to over-emphasise its performance of the vaccine rollout (which has been commendable) in relation to its performance in seeking to limit the spread of the virus amongst the wider community (which was woeful).
To illustrate this fact, a few charts are in order. Statistics may not tell the whole story, but they provide telling indicators. Let us take the positives first, and look at the proportion of individuals vaccinated on a per country basis. Here, the UK sits near the top of the tree, the result of two factors: decisions taken at the outset to ensure that the UK had access to a large supply of vaccines from multiple suppliers, added to a rapid, but robust, licensing procedure. This, it must be said, left our former EU colleagues in our slipstream, and their response has varied from curmudgeon to petulance.
So far so good, and three cheers on this occasion for Matt Hancock.
However, subsequent charts make less pleasant reading.
The first shows the total estimated number of deaths from COVID, both official and an additional number based on the assumption that 80% of excess deaths since the pandemic began can be directly attributed to the pandemic. Here the UK sits sixth in the world, and atop the European charts, well clear of second placed Italy.
When we then look at the number of deaths per million, it gets worse. Amongst all countries with populations of over 10 million, the UK performs worse than any country except the Czech Republic, which has suffered dreadfully during the second wave. Given the natural advantages which the UK has (for example, no mainland borders with other nations across which virus carriers can travel), the performance is lamentable. In Japan, for example, the deaths per million figure is 67; in Australia, 35; in New Zealand, just 5.
The truly tragic element to this is that the government could watch the spread in the Petri dish that was Italy and, based on that, could have announced a lockdown a week earlier. That alone would have reduced the death toll from the first wave by at least 50%; at least 20,000 lives saved.
Secondly, the implementation of mandatory, self-funded quarantines at airports, or outright bans for all travel international travel except for freight, would have further reduced the risk of cross-border infections.
Third, the decision to allow overseas holidaying, even on a limited basis, from July 2020, was – to put it mildly – overly sanguine and undoubtedly contributed to the rapid spread of second wave infections.
Fourth, the UK (as did many others countries) opened up too quickly, too much as the first wave subsided, and were too slow in locking down a second time.
The next chart shows the relative deaths per million in the first wave (x axis) against the second wave (y axis), and European countries fall broadly into three main groups: those who were relatively unscathed by the first wave but have been hit hard by the second (Group A); those who suffered badly in both (Group B); and, a few countries whose stringent policies have meant that the pandemic has caused a low number of deaths. The UK sits near the head of Group B here, a sobering depiction of our performance.
One last comment. There are those who maintain that lockdown was an unnecessary evil and that it has caused untold damage to the economy. Well, the latter part is undeniable, but their alternative – just to let the virus have its way with the community – would have been even more devastating, from an economic as well as a mortality perspective.
To begin with, this virus is highly infectious. Given the speed of contagion in the first wave, without restrictive measures it is almost certain that around 80% of the population would have contracted the disease by August 2020, and that at least 1% of those infected (around 530,000, rather than 45,000) would have died. Secondly, the scale of the contagion would have meant that all other surgeries would have been cancelled, owing to the fact that medical staff would have all been busy on COVID wards, or sick, or dead. At least 5 million individuals would have been off-sick at any one time; the same number would have had long-term health problems. Most schools would have closed in any event due to illness and death amongst teachers. Supply chain problems would have been acute; it is almost certain that food shortages would have resulted, both in the short term and the medium term when there would have been no labour available to pick the crops. Subsequently, the second wave would have picked off perhaps another 100,000 and sent millions more to their beds for extended periods, debilitating many for life.
Now back to this blog’s author.
Closing points
Let us end with a few optimistic points- Holdenforth readers will settle for nothing less.
Spring is in the air – as we look up – we look out onto an abundance of daffodils.
Effective vaccines are being discovered almost on a daily basis.
Mr Trump has been evicted from the White House.
HMG talks cautiously about a gradual reopening of public houses – should any reader catch sight of us in the pub following the relaxation – we are not averse to a pint of Old Special Hen.
On a negative note Holdenforth has not detected any return of control to UK voters following Brexit – Holdenforth has been looking for a distribution of control across the country – a gallon of control here, a hundredweight of control there. Might we eventually see a return to some time honoured imperial measures – say rods or poles or perches?
A brief look at what is happening on the Brexit front.
In our last blog we made some gloomy predictions about what the consequences of Brexit might be in terms of damage to the UK economy.
We are now nearing the end of January and thus far the consequences have been irritating but not drastic. Holdenforth is not sure if this is because we were unduly pessimistic and that what we are experiencing are merely teething problems, or whether significant problems being experienced at the borders but are being under-reported because of the considerable problems created daily by CV19.
One group that was justifiably peeved by one consequence of Brexit was made up of Scottish fishermen who lost money because their product was delayed at EU entry points and subsequently scrapped.
A number of those who lost money took matters into their own hands by driving to Westminster to complain to the relevant authorities and causing traffic chaos in so doing. Their indignation was not assuaged when some drivers were fined for breaching CV19 restrictions and regulations.
Meanwhile, reports are emerging of skirmishes in Ireland stemming from irksome additional bureaucratic requirements triggered by Brexit.
Holdenforth will be watching the situation closely.
What other problems are likely to be faced by HMG in the coming months?
Holdenforth pondered on how to assess the situation. We looked at the options and narrowed these down to either a lengthy catalogue of the many looming perils, or a longer look at a handful of the perils that are likely to be very serious whilst keeping our powder dry on other issues.
We opted for the latter approach, partly because we look askance at the habit amongst aficionados of social media of simply swapping slogans, and partly to keep ourselves busy as the various problems develop into crises.
The toxic Trump legacy
“Democracy is that system of government under which a great free people , having 36million native -born adult whites to choose from.., pick out a Coolidge to be head of state. It is as if a hungry man, set before a banquet prepared by master cooks and covering a table an acre in area, should turn his back upon the feast and stay his stomach by catching and eating flies” HL Mencken on the election of Calvin Coolidge as President of the USA.
Mencken was a fearless critic of the rich and powerful in the USA in the first half of the 20th century.
What might Mencken have made of Donald Trump?
Writing about the unexpected agreement reached in the summer of 1939 between the Soviet Union and Germany Winston Churchill wrote that “pro-Germanism had been heresy and treason. Now, overnight, it was the policy of the State ( the Soviet Union) and woe was mechanically meted out to anyone who dared dispute it, and often to those not quick enough on the turn-about”
Churchill had earlier noted that “the violent and unnatural reversal of Russian policy was a transmogrification of which only totalitarian states are capable.”
Well – up to a point, Mr Churchill.
One aspect of the decline and unseemly departure of Mr Trump which intrigues Holdenforth is the alacrity with which some prominent former worshipers at the Trump shrine are now redacting furiously as they attempt to revise and rework history.
Time was when the main aim of some UK politicians and some prominent media folk was to be seen in the company of Mr Trump, to bask in his reflected glory, and, oh joy, to get praise from the great man.
Not any more.
Who does Holdenforth have in mind?
In no special order:
Mr Nigel Farage
Mr Boris Johnson
Mr Michael Gove
Mr Piers Morgan
Holdenforth readers will have their own names to insert and excoriate.
Holdenforth notes with relief that the handover of power and change of administration was carried out with few signs of the threatened violence and in the event with dignity in the best traditions of American democracy. The red neck fraternity was notable for its absence.
Vaccinating the Masses
As an octogenarian, I was vaccinated early in a well organised mass vaccination event in Wales – yes – in Wales. Thank you, Mr Drakeford.
On the downside my housebound octogenarian wife is waiting for supplies of the vaccine to be made available to a team of itinerant vaccinators. For reasons that are not clear – at least not clear to Holdenforth – the responsibility for home visits has been transferred from the district nurse unit to the new special team.
Now – where had we got to?
Ah yes:- What next on the CV19 front?
At this point Holdenforth hands over the narrative to our editor who has a clearer grasp of what has happened, of what is happening, and what might – or might not – happen.
Holdenforth freely admits that we have grown progressively more confused as we sought to distentangle the plethora of competing statistics and to interpret the strident claims and counter claims of the various experts.
Firstly, it does appear that the number of infections has fallen sharply as a result of the reintroduced lockdowns, with UK diagnosed cases in the week beginning 24th January (178,629) down by more than 30% on the previous week, and representing the lowest weekly total for six weeks, after which point the combination of the highly contagious Kent strain, allied to the foolish decision to permit greater social interaction on Christmas Day, took their inevitable toll.
It should also be observed that deaths in the latest week fell by 5%, and while weekly fatalities are likely to remain in the thousands for at least the next six weeks or so, there is some comfort to be gleaned from the fact that it is highly likely that we are at least past the peak in this awful regard.
Next up is the vaccine. Notwithstanding the EU’s ham-fisted threats to impose a hard border in Northern Ireland, a move which not only denuded them of any moral high ground but also much goodwill amongst Remainers, the vaccine rollout is expected to continue at pace. While various (non-Brussels) logistical problem mean that the UK is unlikely to vaccinate all members of the first four risk groups by its target date of mid-February, nearly one in five of us should have had the first jab by that point. Health experts have also suggested that with the overwhelming majority of individuals within the highest risk group now vaccinated, the impact should be seen on case numbers within a couple of weeks.
However, it should be observed that the UK now has the third-highest number of deaths per million in the world, behind only Peru and Belgium, and it is almost certain that it will be sitting atop the pile in a week’s time. As we observed near the start of the pandemic, locking down the country a week earlier would have saved tens of thousands of lives; quarantine enforced at the airport would have saved thousands more and prevented the surge in cases which resulted from demob-happy Brits flocking to Spain and Croatia as the air corridors were opened up in July.
Figure: Deaths Per Million from COVID-19, as of 31st January 2021
Source: data derived from Worldometers, and also assumes that 80% of excess deaths per country can be attributed to COVID-19. Minimum population 10 million.
Non-medical Matters arising from the pandemic
Allegations of profiteering
“I get an obsession that everybody is out for what they can get during the war and it makes me sick.” Stanley Baldwin in a letter to Lady Dickinson in 1917
“A lot of hard-faced men who look as if they had done very well out of the war.” Another quote from Stanley Baldwin about war profiteering in WW1.
Sadly, there would appear to be significant sharp practices in some of the commercial transactions carried out to provide PPE on a vast scale – the usual detailed scrutiny of competitive tendering appears to have been sacrificed in the haste to provide essential protective clothing.
Holdenforth understands that this sensitive issue will be examined in detail at a later date – HMG is understandably anxious to put profiteering onto the back burner for the time being.
A word about Dr Pete Calveley:
“Fury at care home chief who’s doubled his pay ….. To £2million” Headlines above a Daily Mail piece on January 15 about Dr Pete Calveley:-
The report in The Times was more restrained, but Holdenforth was intrigued by the last sentence in the report. A spokesperson for the Barchester Group noted that “Pete and the exec team are completely focused on continuing to improve every home in every region for our residents, and who have worked relentlessly to protect our residents and patients throughout the pandemic.”
The doctor is the chief executive of Barchester Healt hCare and his annual pay doubled in 2019 from a measly £1m to a slightly more respectable £2m.
It seems to Holdenforth that Dr Pete has worked tirelessly throughout the year to loot the system with very little time to spare for caring for the mostly aged residents.
Holdenforth readers will note that care home residents have suffered disproportionately during the pandemic.
Not so Dr Pete.
How can he and others at the same game get away with it I hear you ask?
For the umpteenth time I have to put to readers the relevant question and answer:
Q- “Why does a dog lick its balls?
A – “because it can”
Thus dogs taking advantage of the freedom to gratify themselves.
Thus the Doc and other like minded graduates from The Arthur Daley Business School taking advantage of the astonishing freedom to loot public funds.
The Sumption imbroglio
“Crabbed age and youth cannot live together; Youth is full of pleasance age is full of care: The Passionate Pilgrim – Shakespeare
Shakespeare did not add that care homes are full of the aged but it may well be the case that care homes were few and far between in Shakespeare’s time.
A startling development arose when a former British Supreme Court Justice, Lord Sumption, appeared to suggest that “all lives are not of equal value.” A boisterous public debate followed and His Lordship retreated a little. However his attempt to clarify his position – “ I didn’t say it ( the life of a 39 year old cancer sufferer ) was not valuable. I said it was less valuable “ – served only to make matters worse.
It was unfortunate that a man so skilled in the precise use of words should have presented his strong case so clumsily that he was treated to the full treatment – both barrels – from a tetchy Ian Birrell in The Daily Mail.
Let’s see if Holdenforth can do any better.
Holdenforth takes the view that the emphasis of the response of HMG to the pandemic has been far too much in favour of the old at the expense of the young and that the consequence will be lasting harm to the health and prospects of the young – the generation that will have lost a full year of education – for many years to come.
We octogenarians have had our respective innings and, where there is a clash of interest between youth and age, old timers should be required to stand aside and make way for the next generation.
We were tempted at this point to say something along the following lines- “Members of the jury – we rest our case .” However the Jury is replete with oldies up for a fight and we will leave it there.
Boris said – let’s get Brexit done – and Brexit was done – No ifs, no buts, no maybes.
As of January 1, 2021 – The UK has left the EU.
Have you got that? Even Holdenforth now accepts that.
Where to begin our doleful Brexit post mortem?
* We have to confess that we are very confused – our aged brains have been addled by the hourly updates as the negotiators on both sides growled and bluffed. Inevitably the confusion in our minds will be reflected in the following blog.
* The outcome to the painfully protracted negotiations was, amongst other things, a triumph for Johnson and his team of negotiators. BoJo did not just get Brexit done. He got a soft Brexit done.
A brief stroll down memory lane – what were the main events and developments which resulted in BoJo’s triumphant crowing just before Christmas.
* Tory Brexiteers – or as John Major rightly called them – Bastards – were a significant disruptive element in the Tory party between 1990 and 1997. The party was divided then, as later, on our membership of the EU and this division helped Tony Blair to his landslide victory in 1997.
* Let us fast forward to 2014. David Cameron, mindful that the Labour Party under Ed Miliband posed no threat to his electoral prospects, was anxious to neutralise the growing threat posed by Nigel Farage and opted to offer the electors a referendum on our membership.
* Cameron strengthened his position at the 2015 election but paid a fearful price in so doing. He spent the next year campaigning – in vain – for a remain vote.
The vote was narrowly but decisively in favour of leaving and Cameron immediately resigned.
* Mrs May emerged as Prime Minister following the unseemly leadership contest.
* There followed three years of political sterility as Mrs May sought to negotiate an exit deal with the EU. Remember – Mrs May had been a remainer during the campaign.
Her position was not helped by her unwise decision to call a general election in June 2017, the outcome of which was a significant erosion of her position and the disappearance of the Tory parliamentary majority.
* Her support ebbed away and she was forced into ignominious resignation. In the ensuing contest BoJo emerged as the clear winner and as our third PM in years.
* BoJo rapidly abandoned any pretence at rational debate in favour of the fashioning of slogans combined with the elimination of unreliable elements from within his own party.
* “Let’s get Brexit done” did the trick. Yes, let’s – echoed the voters
* What was Labour doing all this time? Under the leadership of Mr Corbyn it was busy not just shooting itself in the foot but kneecapping itself in the bargain. Mr Corbyn with a long and unblemished record of opposing racism managed to get himself classified as an Anti-Semite.
His performance was even worse on Brexit as he opted to ask the voters to adjudicate on the key in or out question – a startling abdication of leadership.
* The Brief Bojo triumph was marred by the dark microbial cloud that is CoVID-19.
* BoJo now spends his time fighting on 2 fronts, namely trying to defend the abysmal performance of his government in managing or failing to manage the pandemic and assuring the country that the UK is on the verge of a great renaissance as it shakes off the chains imposed by the EU.
Why did Holdenforth want the UK to remain in the EU?
In no special order:-
* We believed and still believe that cooperation is to be preferred to competition in international affairs.
* The establishment of the European Union was the most civilised development in Europe for the last millennium.
* The basic principles of the EU – free movement of goods, services, capital and people together with the maximum amount of cooperation within the component member states over a wide range of issues of common concern such as security, research, social justice, human rights to mention a few.
* This vision of shared sovereignty was to replace the many factors that had help to trigger the conflicts that had been a feature of the history of the warring nation states culminating in the appalling conflicts in WW1 and WW2.
* Some 6 decades of careful work and shared input had gone into the establishment of arrangements to ensure that these principles were being implemented .
* The EU had been designed to replace conflict with cooperation – and it has in large measure succeeded.
Unsurprisingly, BoJo’s efforts have been lauded by his cheerleaders in the Daily Mail and the Mail on Sunday. “Happy Xmas, the Brexit war is over”, proclaimed Richard Littlejohn in his Mail column on Boxing Day, while a banner headline in the following day’s Mail on Sunday informed us that ““Boris the human bulldozer has triumphantly freed us from the EU”.
The same edition gave us Andrew Marr’s “Great Uncorking of Joy…With a welcome burst of optimism , [he] says Britain can look forward to savouring life’s lost pleasures with more fizz and pop than at any time since the end of the 1930s depression.” (Readers with long memories will recall that this is the same Andrew Marr that took out a general injunction to ban any reference to his not particularly interesting extra marital activities. In a different context this action by Marr would have been denounced as an assault on press freedom. But I digress.)
Of course, there was more, much more (naturally, Farage and Gove had to get their respective oars in), while on December 29 we had Lord Bilimoria assuring us that the “Historic Brexit deal will make 2021 a year of recovery”. (Holdenforth notes that Lord Bilimoria is in the grog business and it may be the case that his products will be much in demand as UK voters struggle to cope with the many adverse aspects of Brexit.)
There is plenty more where these came from. The gist of the paeans of adulation for BoJo is that he has freed us from the house of bondage and we will now relaunch into a land flowing with milk and honey.
You get the picture?
I have a picture of Boris and his like minded colleagues roaming the streets of the seats won by the Tories from Labour in the last election – a parcel of sovereignty for this voter, a package of control for that one. BoJo may even go for this approach big time and use Amazon as his sub contractor to bribe the voters with their own money.
BoJo has now set out his rosy vision of the future and his mission statement. He concedes that CV 19 and its aftermath will hamper the march into the promised land but – and on this he is right – he did not invent COVID-19 and he has dealt energetically if not very effectively with the problems created.
So – to what extent does Holdenforth accept his version of events and more importantly his optimistic vision for the future?
Holdenforth believes that Brexit will create massive problems triggered by unanticipated changes to the arrangements carefully put in place during the past six decades.
Some of the more obvious of these unanticipated problems include:
* Interruptions to supply chains with production delays arising from delays at the ports.
* An understandable reluctance of companies which operate on a global scale to invest in the new and very shaky structure that is now the UK.
* A weakening of security arrangements at a time when effective cooperation has never been more important.
* Any residual good will remaining after the signing of the soft Brexit deal will vanish as both sides blame each other for the ever increasing chaos.
* The adverse consequences of Brexit will hurt – as is always the case – those least able to defend themselves.
*Gradual cessation of UK operations by multinational companies (including those which are “British”), in favour of transferring operations to East Europe, Turkey, or even Morocco – all countries with lower cost base, and a growing manufacturing capability. For those companies remaining, there will be a squeeze on wages and remuneration packages generally “to be able to remain competitive”.
*Significant increases in prices of basic goods such as food, and probably a reduction in availability of more exotic items.
While Holdenforth has not yet read the 1,200 page deal (by the way – have you? ), we suspect that each day which passes will uncover more and more areas of disagreement and that we think that the outcome will be a surge in political, economic and social chaos that will make the pandemic seem a trivial affair.
You will see what you will see.
For my part I am unlikely see the outcome – I suspect that the Grim Reaper has me in his sights and I am perched precariously in the departure lounge.
And one other thing – I accept that I have lost the bet that I made a few years ago that the UK would remain in the EU and will pay up when allowed to do so by Covid 19.
The democratic deficit
As the UK edges nervously into 2021 many Brexiteers are convinced that it has much to teach the rest of the world about how states should be governed & in particular, how best to apply democratic methods in these turbulent times.
Holdenforth is not wholly convinced that our political methods are appropriate.
In this connection – a word about the democratic contribution of The House of Lords.
The appointment by Boris Johnson of 50+ additional members to the already swollen numbers in the House of Lords may be shrewd politics but it does little to persuade other countries that our systems should be used as models for others to follow.
One of the new additions, a rotund civil servant, David Frost, was catapulted into the Lords and put in charge of the UK negotiating team on Brexit.
Lord Frost will be a sitting target if he tries to advise overseas leaders about what are and what are not democratic politics.
HF noted that Lord Rennard, in a letter to The Times, rightly suggested that there might be a link between the recent sharp increase in the membership of The House of Lords and plans by HMG “for a 69% increase in the money that political parties could spend in general elections”.
Well said, Lord Rennard.
Is this the same Lord Rennard that was noted for his, shall we say, hands on approach as a political manager?
The ongoing short term impact of COVID19
“Tiers, idle tiers, I know not what they mean, Tiers from the depth of some divine despair Rise in the heart, and gather to the eyes, In looking on the happy Autumn-fields, And thinking of the days that are no more”
Lines from Tennyson’s The Princess – with apologies to Tennyson for the altered spelling of tears
It appears that lockdowns of varying degrees of severity will be in place until Easter 2021. It has also been factored into the various predictive models that the relaxation phase for the Christmas holiday will be followed by a sharp rise in the national infection rate in the first quarter of 2021. This rise will have been triggered by the national propensity for close contact displays of affection during the Christmas break.
HF neither approves of nor frowns on this likely outcome. Boys will be boys and girls will be girls.
A word on the history of COVID19
1.In the beginning the world was without the Corona Virus
2. And lo – there appeared from somewhere or other the Corona virus
3. And sad to say – it spread like wildfire around the world.
4. And from the outset the chief points of interest were:-
* What happened to create the virus? Holdenforth simply notes that these unwelcome mutations occur from time to time.
* Which were the most vulnerable sectors in terms of serious consequences following infection? All age groups were/are equally vulnerable to being infected – but the infected old timers were much more likely to die from the consequences of the infection.
(I must declare an interest here – as an octogenarian I expect an early jab to protect me against the pesky parasite)
* How did the young fare during the pandemic? There were very few physical health problems – but – the young have suffered and continue to suffer disproportionately and seriously by the loss of a year of education – a loss which can never be recovered.
* Were the interests of the young and the interests of the old mutually exclusive in terms of the measures taken to control the pandemic? Yes – but some countries did better than others in striking a sensible balance between the two.
There was general agreement around the world about how the virus was transmitted and thus what measures to take to minimise the risk of further infections – face masks, social distancing, maximum levels of testing etc
Looking ahead – in the UK we are likely to get more of the same until the new vaccines provide the required effective protection. In short a desperate national attempt to strike a balance between minimising the risks to the vulnerable whilst minimising the damage to the economy and to the healthy development of the next generation.
Consequences of Brexit – “Anti – Brexiteers should go down fighting
“If an EU trade is struck, it won’t impoverish Britain but it’s still an act of national self harm. Brexit was always a bad idea: bad not only for our livelihoods and national wealth, but bad because, in a world racked by insecurity and division, we British forsook one of modern history’s great and noble experiments in bringing nations together”
Matthew Parris -The Times Dec 5
Well put, Matthew.
Holdenforth agreed with every word of his Times column.
WE would go further – we believe that the consequences of our leaving the EU will be devastating & this devastation will have been wholly self inflicted by the BOJO led Brexiteers.
In the Andrew Marr Show on BBC 1 on January 3 Andrew Marr quizzed Boris Johnson about various aspects of the pandemic and about Brexit.
For Holdenforth the interview encapsulated all that is squalid and depressing about the UK as we enter 2021. A dodgy interview of a dodgy Prime Minister by a dodgy celebrity.
Back in 2003 I wrote a book which I called A Cushy Number.
After seven months of living under the shadow of Covid-19 I was curious to see what, if anything, had changed in the intriguing world of work, of the demands made by work and of the rewards earned by work – as analysed in my book.
Holdenforth readers unfamiliar with the book will want to know what I was saying all those years ago when I was a mere boy of 62.
The following extracts from the book set out the gist of what I was trying to say.
What is a cushy number?
“Therefore the Lord God sent him forth from the Garden of Eden to till the ground from whence he was taken!” Genesis 3, 23
“There was nothing to do and he did it charmingly; there was a handsome salary to draw and he would draw it charmingly” Dickens reporting the elevation of Mr Sparkler to the Circumlocution Office in Little Dorrit
“You and I and the editor of the Times Lit Supp, and the Nancy poets, and the Archbishop of Canterbury and Comrade X, author of Marxism for Infants- all of us really owe the comparative decency of our lives to poor drudges underground, blackened to the eyes, with their throats full of coal dust, driving their shovels forward with arms and belly muscles of steel” The Road to Wigan Pier, George Orwell
The cushy number has a long and honoured place in the history of mankind. In Chapter 3 of Genesis the terms and conditions arranged by God for Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden were described – and they were very agreeable. They – Adam and Eve – were not required to work, and the only limitation placed upon them in terms of consumption was to give a miss to the fruit of the tree of knowledge. Sadly Eve was unable to resist the wiles of the tempting serpent and she, and, a little later, Adam, sampled the forbidden fruit. The Lord God took a very dim view of their offence, and immediately put into effect the relevant disciplinary procedures. By the end of Genesis 3 their cushy number in the Garden of Eden had been cancelled, and our illustrious ancestors became reluctant founder members of the working class.
Dickens was on top form in Little Dorrit and nowhere more so than in describing the operation of the Circumlocution Office. Mr Sparklers friend, Henry Gowan, was delighted that “the dear donkey for whom he had so great an affection was so admirably stabled.”
The quote from Orwell brings our story quickly up to date. The world has moved on since Orwell wrote the above words in 1936, but the point he made then is equally valid today. In order that the lucky minority can hold down cushy numbers, the majority of us are required to work in mundane, repetitive, low paid, insecure jobs.
This book sets out to explore why some jobs are more desirable than others. This immediately raises the question – desirable in terms of what? Desirable in terms of this all important aspect of cushiness, that’s what.
This book has two purposes. Firstly to demonstrate that cushy numbers do exist, and, secondly, to explain to readers how to secure and retain a cushy number. An ambitious plan, but rest assured, by the time you have reached the end of the book, you will know all there is to know about the subject, and, more importantly, you will be well equipped to go out and get a cushy number.
Let us begin our analysis with some definitions. We will define a cushy number as a well rewarded sinecure. The word sinecure is defined as an office of profit with no duties. We are looking for a lot more than an office of profit, although we are quite happy with the absence of duties. We are looking for, indeed we insist upon, a job which combines the minimum of effort with the maximum of reward. It must be stressed at the outset that we cushy number seekers insist on having both criteria satisfied. We don’t want a demanding well rewarded job although we accept that this would be a step in the right direction. Equally we don’t just want a sinecure. We want a well rewarded sinecure.
At several stages during the writing of this book the need arose for a word which denoted the opposite of cushy. For a while the somewhat cumbersome compound word uncushy was used, but it lacked elegance. An alternative was sought and found, the adjective augean. A word of explanation may be appropriate. Augeus was the king of Elis in ancient Greece and he had a problem. His problem was that he owned 3000 oxen whose stalls had not been cleansed for 30 years. If you do the calculation you will see that Augeus had on his hands, metaphorically, and, arguably, literally, a lot of bullshit. He, King Augeus, arranged with Hercules that if he could clean the said stalls in a single day, he would receive 300 oxen in return, ie a straight 10% cut. Hercules succeeded by resorting to a highly imaginative irrigation technique, and went on to claim the rewards from the contract. King Augeus, like many of his fellow monarchs at the time and since, was not averse to a spot of sharp practice and queried the terms of the deal (were they in writing? – the text does not make this clear) and the upshot was that Hercules remained oxenless. The term Augean has come to mean filthy, difficult and bereft of reward, the perfect contrast to the cushy number. Hercules had landed a job which combined high demand, zero reward and, another common feature, a lot of bullshit to clear away. None of the labours of Hercules was a cushy number, but his arrangement with Augeus was the one most apposite to our requirements.
A cushy number has been the dream of those who combine indolence and cupidity from the earliest days of social organisation. In our times and with the breakdown of social and class barriers, the desire is stronger and more widespread than ever before. Most of us – let’s admit it – yearn for a job which combines the minimum of effort for the maximum of reward, and this aspiration is likely to intensify in the years to come. We want a cushy number, we fume whenever we hear that one of our friends has got what we believe to be one, but that’s about as far as the analysis goes. Given this widespread demand for a cushy number, it is astonishing how little work or even thought has gone into this crucial issue. We need to think through what we mean in order to get what we want. How on earth can we get a cushy number if we don’t know what we are looking for? How exactly will we know one when we see one? What are the defining features of the cushy number, the features that separate it from your job and from all the jobs I ever had?
Two key points to consider are that work takes up the greater part of our waking lives and, secondly, that we have much more choice and control over the sort of work we do than most of us ever realise, until sadly, it is far too late. Surely most of us would prefer to spend this time in cushy rather than augean activity? It is clear that our choice of profession or job is crucially important, by far the most important that we are called upon to make during our time on earth. Let us repeat this crucial central point. The choice of job is the most important decision of our lives. We suspect that this assertion will be contested by two groups, the young, who are not qualified to judge, and those with cushy numbers, who are understandably biased. We will simply ignore the views of the young on this issue, as we should ignore their views on all issues, and we will make allowances for the bias of the present cushy number holders.
One point to stress at the outset is the need to make your career selection early. The reason for this requirement is that most schools operate some form of subject selection at around year four of secondary education. We must ensure that our children avoid the sciences which tend to lead straight to jobs with high demand and low rewards. Instead we must steer them towards soft studies like history, English, geography and so on. Maths is fine as long as the students get out early and absorb just enough to be confident in their financial manipulations later on. Note that the word manipulation is used here to cover both of its commonly accepted meanings. A modern language is fine and if our selected career choice is the Civil Service or Academia the classics remain a reasonable each way bet. Sound options are those courses whose titles include the word “studies”. This category embraces business studies, social studies, gender studies, and, best of all, general studies.
We are not going to cover in detail the issue of the right school for our cushy number candidates. However it should be said that attendance at one or other of the top public schools continues to provide a formidable competitive edge in the later struggle for the cushy number. It is much more doubtful if this is this case for the minor public schools. Your local comprehensive school will provide as good an education and, crucially, at no cost. Apart from the handful of top schools the public schools are simply not cost effective in the long term.
Before proceeding with our analysis we need at this stage to raise and clarify a few issues which usually cloud discussion of the subject. The first difficulty is that almost all holders of almost all jobs believe that their jobs are uniquely demanding and ill rewarded. They (including you and I) can’t all be right. We need to establish a method to help us to determine which jobs are actually demanding and which jobs are demanding only in the minds of the job holders. The same point applies with equal force to the reward element of the job. How do we distinguish between jobs which are genuinely well rewarded and jobs which are only superficially well rewarded.
In order to establish an objective basis for comparison between jobs a cushy number model has been developed. This model is used to determine the true demand of a job together with the true total reward. These two core elements of all jobs, the job demand element and the job reward element are then combined to give the cushy number index. The model is beautiful in its simplicity, and powerfully effective as a tool for analysis and comparison.
A number of key features have been identified to establish the total demands of a job. They include assessments of job stress, job security, the ease with which the performance of the job holder can be measured, and working conditions. All the various elements are taken into consideration in arriving at the job demand index or JDI.
Our analysis of job reward goes well beyond the usual limited approach of salary. The model takes account of all relevant reward elements including, indeed especially, those arrangements which cover the important period from retirement to oblivion. This latter element is, of course, the all important pension arrangement. The outcome is the job reward index or JRI. The reward element of our job determines our standard of living, it determines where and how we live, it influences who we marry and dictates the sort of lives we and our children will lead.
The cushy number model takes full and equal account of both job demand and job reward. Both elements are important and the ideal cushy number combines minimum demands on, with maximum rewards to, the job holder.
It must be stressed that our cushy number model bears no resemblance to the job evaluation models used by and loved by human resource professions and business school academics. Suffice it to say that their models are useless. They are designed to confuse rather than clarify the issues involved, and to perpetrate the pervasive myth that talent and hard work will be suitably rewarded. The models devised in the business schools have an additional fraudulent purpose which is to swell the torrent of pedagogical froth masquerading as scholarship.
The early chapters are given over to the exposition of the two elements of the model, namely job demand and job reward. The book then explains how the indices derived from these two elements are combined to produce that all important statistic, all pervasive measure, the cushy number index.
We then take a brief look at two factors which have an important bearing on the cushiness of jobs, namely the influence of nepotism and the significance of public sector employment. Suffice it to say at this stage that one clear hallmark of a cushy number is a high degree of nepotism. We have only to look at the well known practice of people in the media and in politics to pass their cushy numbers on to the next generation. The Freuds, Dimblebys, Corens and Hoggarts come instantly to mind, and readers will doubtless have their own particular bete noires in this category. Such is my strength of feeling on this issue that I am willing to forgive Mr Rupert Murdoch his own ruthless nepotism on behalf of his own offspring because access to his Sky TV network means that I do not have to endure one or other of the appalling Dimbleby brothers when viewing post General Election inquests.
The combination of the demand and reward elements of a job also determines, in these more flexible and easy going times, the range of opportunities required in order to engage in a variety of extra marital sexual encounters, should readers find that prospect appealing. I stressed to my wife that this is a perception on my part, based on ratiocination rather than experience. It is important that domestic harmony is maintained. Incidentally I realise that extra marital sounds quaint and archaic to modern ears, but uxorious men of my generation are still marital men and look askance when asked about their partners.
Our target readers and would be beneficiaries are a mixture of parents anxious to steer their offspring towards the cushy prizes life has to offer and those whose careers have not been irrevocably committed to jobs which are either demanding or ill rewarded or, horror of horrors, both. We suspect that the former group will prove to be a more receptive audience, but all are welcome in the search party. You won’t regret it With diligence you should succeed in moving you and yours up the league table. With diligence and luck you and yours may even make it to the top of the league.
The cushy number league table.
It only remains to compile a league table based on the cushy number indices.
The relevant acronyms are:
JDI = Job Demand Index
JRI = Job Reward Index
CNI = Cushy Number index
All indices are measured on a scale from 1 to 10 with 1 the lowest and 10 the highest.
The CNI is arrived at by multiplying the JDI by the JRI
The cushiest possible job would have a CNI of 100
The least cushy number – the most Augean – would have a CNI of 1
JDI
JRI
CNI
Senior Managers, Privatised Utilities
10.0
10.0
100.0
Senior Executives, City
9.5
10.0
95.0
Senior Executives, Industry
9.0
10.0
90.0
Town Hall Managers
9.5
8.5
80.8
Senior Civil Servants
9.0
8.5
76.5
Lawyers
7.5
8.5
63.8
Senior Police Officers
7.0
8.0
56.0
Academics
7.5
6.0
45.0
Clergy
7.0
5.0
35.0
Journalists
5.0
6.0
30.0
Politicians
5.0
6.0
30.0
Doctors
3.0
7.0
21.0
Teachers
2.0
6.0
12.0
Engineers
3.0
4.0
12.0
Law Breakers
3.0
3.0
9.0
Premier League Footballers
1.0
8.0
8.0
There it is. The first ever league table of cushy numbers based on the first ever methodical study of cushy numbers.
The rise to the very top of the league of senior managers in the privatised utilities came as something of a surprise. Was it an example of the law of unintended consequences? Mrs Thatcher, with her endless preaching about the virtues of risk and competitiveness, could never have intended this consequence, could she?
For me the saddest finding of all was the decline and fall of the engineering profession in the country which was the cradle of the industrial revolution and which led the way for others to follow in the formation of capital. There was a time when enterprise, initiative and risk, popularly supposed to lie at the heart of capitalism, brought appropriate rewards. Not any more. Engineers are not just below the salt. They are below the stairs hoping that their betters, or at least their superiors in cushiness, will leave a bone or a crust at the end of the feast to enable them to partake of a frugal supper. On gala nights they stay behind to stoke the furnace in the cellar whilst the cushy number boys are out on the town. And there is absolutely no chance of a snug fitting slipper giving an escape route at the end of the evening when the cushy number brigade arrive home inebriated. Engineers are in deep trouble with no prospects of remission for good behaviour. Their only relief is the escapism of dreams – maybe of a job in the Town Hall.
In the rapidly developing Western style economies of what, until recently, were the old republics of the USSR, reports indicate that the cushiest numbers have all been appropriated by members of organisations which base both their commercial outlook and management practices on those of the long standing businesses based in Sicily. This would seem to indicate that either the law breakers in Russia are much higher up the cushy number league table, or, more likely, are simply above and outside the law.
We have now generated a most useful tool in our search for a cushy number. Readers should study it and then take steps to ensure that they and theirs quickly secure places at or near the top of the table. In future no one can claim that they didn’t know, that they were kept in the dark. The facts of life are all in these pages, far more important than the stuff and the guff about birds and bees.
Now to the theme of this blog: what impact, if any, has the Covid19 pandemic had on the Cushy Number league table?
What changes have there been, if any, and why?
Given the rapidly changing situation triggered by the odious parasite that is Covid-19 it would not be sensible to attempt a detailed job by job analysis. However a few observations are in order.
Here goes.
Public sector jobs as compared with private sector jobs.
Mr Sunak has acted with commendable zeal to protect the incomes of millions of private sector workers by the introduction of furlough payments and other measures. That is – for the recipients – the good news.
The bad news is that many of these measures are about to be ended and replaced with – with what?
For many – the grim prospect of a P45 issued by countless businesses that either have called it a day or are about to do so.
No such worries for those in the public sector – the job reward index of this group will not be changed.
Nice work if you can get it.
In short – the incomes of public sector white collar works are as secure after 7 months of exposure to Covid 19 as they were 20 years ago.
No fears no anxieties about when the next cheque will arrive and how much it will be for.
Lawyers
“It is likewise to be observed that this society (lawyers) hath a peculiar cant and jargon of their own, that no other mortal can understand, and wherein all their laws are written, which they take special care to multiply; whereby they have wholly confounded the very essence of truth and falsehood, of right and wrong, so that it will take thirty years to decide whether the field left me by my ancestors for six generations belongs to me or to a stranger three hundred miles off” Jonathan Swift, Gulliver’s Travels
Swift was spot on in his excoriation of the legal profession when he wrote Gulliver’s Travels three hundred years and nothing has changed since then.
Accordingly it will come as no surprise to learn that the fortunes of this group of professionals have blossomed as the impact of the pandemic has bitten ever deeper. The legal profession thrives on discord and the growth of discord has been a prominent feature of the past six months.
The Medical Profession.
The pandemic has triggered a curious split in this profession.
The GP branch hastily constructed and then retreated into safe havens. Once safely housed in these safe havens they, the GPs opted for a policy of diagnosis at a distance.
The irritation triggered by this method was usually exacerbated by the difficulty of getting through to the GP in order to initiate the process.
Holdenforth has spent many hours in recent months calling the GP number only to be greeted with yet another engaged signal.
In short the GP branch of the profession has experienced and continues to experience significantly less stress than was the case prior to the pandemic.
As to their rewards packages – no change.
At the other end of the scale the hospital branch of the profession has been the first line of defence against Covid-19 and has rightly earned plaudits for its collective courage in the face of fearsome adversity.
For these heroes and heroines – significantly more stress.
Doctors in the hospital service have been handed the dirty end of the Covid-19 stick.
A word about that new breed that has emerged and flourished since the arrival of Covid19 – those who combine – or who purport to combine – medical skills and statistical skills.
Many years ago I worked briefly as an Operational Research Scientist and within this group it was suggested that the Medical Profession was replete with scientists who were unable to cope with Maths.
The confusion created by the attempts of Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Whitty to explain the tsunami of numbers emerging daily from HMG suggest that the gibe may have had some validity.
The engineering profession.
The havoc wreaked on this profession as the pandemic tightened its grip has been appalling. Business closures in the manufacturing sector announced to date have been enormous and it is probable that the situation will get worse before there is a return to Business as Usual – if indeed there is ever to be a return to Business as Usual.
All who find themselves faced with these bleak prospects deserve our sympathy but one sub-group deserve our special sympathy. I refer to the many specialists in the auto sector who have spent decades developing and operating Just in Time supply systems throughout the EU and indeed globally.
Their predicament has been made much worse by the disgraceful actions of BOJO to “get Brexit done”. The chaotic consequences of this squalid opportunism will form a significant part of our national economic shambles in the coming months.
Academics
This group endured a few difficult weeks as they tried to strike a balance between imposing tight lock downs and ensuring that students could experience a civilised learning environment.
However in the excitement and confusion created by Covid-19 I had quite forgotten that many University Vice Chancellors had outraged many, including their own junior colleagues by their shameless greed in recent years.
See the CV of the VC of Bolton University for further details.
Closing comments
“ Things fall aprt; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.” “The Second Coming” by WB Yeats
Might it be that the feelings and fears of Yeats will turn out to be just as valid as those put out in recent weeks by HMG?
“Upbeat Bank of England chief says forget fear and fatalism, economy’s bouncing back” Daily Mail Headline which refers to the views of Bank of England Chief, Mr Andy Haldane
Will the outcome be a vindication of the optimistic forecast of Mr Haldane,
OR
Might the outcome be that Mr Haldane turns out to be a latter day Dr Pangloss, the battered hero described by Voltaire in “Candide”?
Our previous Holdenforth blog opened with a plaintive account of the tribulations of an aged carer as he sought to provide care for Mrs Holdenforth. The rest of the blog consisted of a catalogue of the many hazards to be faced by the British people in the coming months.
In the course of this gloomy catalogue Holdenforth gave the briefest of comments about the problems that will arise from the probable hard Brexit being arranged by BoJo(link).
Even I, with my long term aversion to BoJo and all his works, had not imagined that BoJo would get this one so badly wrong so quickly and that Brexit problems would rise from the dead and bite him sharply up his ample backside.
So – what has BoJo gone and done now?
Let us allow Stephen Glover, crusty conservative columnist, to open the batting: In his column in the Daily Mail on September 14 Glover wrote:
“The truth is that at the 11th hour almost everything is undecided. It turns out that “oven ready deal” of which Boris Johnson endlessly boasted during last December’s election campaign hasn’t even been placed on the baking tray”
Well said, Mr Glover.
Recent developments that have resulted in Brexit pushing Covid-19 off centre stage
“This bill – (The internal market bill) is an abomination and should simply be thrown out.” Extract from by Matthew Parris’s column in The Times on Sept 12.
Parris devotes his entire column to excoriating the latest example of the contempt shown by BoJo and his dwindling band of supporters for the need for the UK to show respect for the rule of law and for the age old case to abide by the terms of treaties freely entered into between nations.
Some EU leaders are said to have been surprised by this latest example of diplomatic hooliganism displayed by BoJo.
Holdenforth is surprised only that anyone should have been surprised. For our part – to expect BoJo to behave honourably is like expecting a skunk not to stink.
A word about the consistent views of Holdenforth on the UK membership of the EU
“At this early stage I see the Remain case as being stronger than the Leave case. I trust that this view will prevail in the referendum planned by Mr Cameron. I also trust that the outcome of the planned Labour Party review to determine a policy with regard to our membership of the EU will be a policy based on logic rather than prejudice, on debate rather than assertion and on a long term vision rather than one based on short term electoral gain.” John Holden – Extract from a Tribune Article in October 2015
* Over the next five years I became more and more convinced of the benefits of membership.
* Sadly – and for reasons well known to everyone – support for the remain case steadily weakened and the Brexiteers went from strength to strength.
The final nail in the remain coffin was firmly driven in by the outcome of the General Election in December, 2019 – an outcome which saw BoJo and his supporters in the Tory party rout all their political opponents including all had dared to oppose him from within his own party.
As he surveyed the scene at the end of 2019 and armed with his effective slogan – “Let’s get Brexit done” – it seemed that the UK was in for 5 years of BoJo policies – including, of course, that the UK would leave the EU.
None could gainsay him – apart from a mysterious deadly virus, no respecter of race or creed or colour or gender or party, that was lurking in the wings.
A few words about Mr Johnson
Readers of Holdenforth – there are a few out there – will have been aware that we are rather less than impressed by what we have seen and heard from BoJo down the years.
Let us just say that we endorse the gibe made by one of his numerous critics that dealing with Bojo is like grappling with an eel in a bucket of snot.
A stroll down memory lane
“I come now to the group that probably did more than any group to thwart the hopes of Mr Cameron that the UK should remain the EU. I refer of course to the respectable conservative leaders of the Brexit campaign, namely BoJo, Michael Gove and the boneless wonder Ian Duncan Smith. Their collective activities are said to have galvanised the Brexit campaign, mired as it was at the time in the dubious control of Nigel Farage.
“The case of BoJo was especially poignant because it was rumoured that he had struggled with his conscience as to which side he ought to support. Those of us not enamoured with the political persona of BoJo wondered how he had managed to locate what for him would have been a most elusive personal feature, to whit his conscience.
There can be no doubt that this trio of malcontents collectively bear more responsibility for the success of the Brexit campaign than any of the other participants… I trust that their fellow citizens will be mindful of this as the consequences of their actions are imposed on those in the UK least able to cope.
Extract from Tribune article by John Holden- July 2016
Is Bojo about to be handed the black spot?
“The loyalties which centre upon number 1 are enormous. If he trips he must be sustained. If he makes mistakes they must be covered. If he sleeps he must not be wantonly disturbed. If he is no good he must be poleaxed.” Extract from the war memoirs of Winston Churchill – Churchill was writing about the political situation just after he succeeded Mr Chamberlain as Prime Minister in May, 1940.
Might the words and deeds of BoJo in 2020, and especially since the appearance of Covid19, persuade enough malcontents from within his own party to clamber out of the comfort of the trenches and issue him with an ultimatum – resign or else?
Holdenforth understands that a powerful physique is required to wield a poleaxe.
Might the impressive Geoffrey Cox be the man of the hour?
A tricky section coming up but I want to get a few points off my chest – and here I speak for no one but myself.
“ Why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye” Matthew 6
A shrewd point made by Jesus in his Sermon on the Mount!
1. I noted that there was much media speculation that The House of Lords might well pose a formidable obstacle to the passage of the Internal Market Bill.
I find it disquieting that possibly THE most undemocratic institution in world politics should be leading the fight against the democratically elected HMG and that the House of Lords will seize the opportunity to posture as the guardians of the UK democratic tradition.
2. I find it disquieting that the man selected by BoJo to lead the UK negotiating team in discussions with the EU about the terms of our departure should be the portly Lord Frost, hastily promoted to the House of Lords for this purpose.
3. I find it disquieting that some of the grilling of the various stakeholders in the Internal Market Bill was done by Andrew Marr, a man who just a few short years ago muzzled the press when they sought to print details of his not especially interesting love life.
4. I find it disquieting that BoJo is brazenly planning to renege on the treaty obligations that he personally negotiated.
It appears to me that HMG under the shaky flaky leadership of BoJo is making it very easy for the leaders of clearly undemocratic states to dissent from UK accusations about their dubious democratic credentials and to underline their point by referring to the relevant sections of the Sermon on the Mount.
As I write:
Q – Has the UK actually left the EU?
A – Well no, not really.
Q – Will we be leaving the EU by December 31, 2020?
A- BoJo – he say yes we will.
Q- On what terms?
A- Again – as I write – ideally on the basis of a soft Brexit – BUT- if the outcome of the talks led by the Portly Lord Frost is no deal, then out we go with a hard Brexit.
I sought to clarify this point because I now accept that I have lost my wager with a walking colleague made a few years ago and will accordingly proceed to settle up as per the terms of the bet.
Unlike BoJo, Holdenforth will adhere to the terms of a contract freely entered into.
Anything else to report?
Sadly COVID-19 has not gone away. Indeed, there are signs that the pesky parasite is preparing to return refreshed to the fray around the world.
At the time of going to press, BoJo is said to be considering a series of measures designed to reduce the spread and incidence of the virus, which has risen from 1 case per 2,000 individuals at the start of September to an estimated 1 in 900 less than two weeks later. These measures, which are likely to be imposed on a national rather than regional basis, are expected to include a ban on households mixing and what have been described as “circuit breakers”, the two-week closure of pubs and restaurants. Given the rapidly rising number of cases, these measures may well be introduced in the next week or so.
One other point worth mentioning here is the quite abysmal implementation of both the testing and of track and trace procedures. Indeed, it reached the point whereby residents of Aberdeen seeking tests in their vicinity found themselves being directed to test centres in London. However, those enterprising Aberdonians who claimed that they lived in London were then able to get appointments in Aberdeen. Our Health Secretary’s response to these activities, rather than to apologise profusely and humbly for an inadequate testing solution was to accuse the public of “gaming the system”, which pretty much sums up the government’s overall approach: it’s all someone else’s fault.
A Pot Pourri of items
“David Cameron said he wanted to drag me into a bush and ‘give me one’” Headline above an extract from the diary of the wife of Tory MP, Hugo Swire.Daily Mail 16/9/20
Who said that the age of romance was dead?
Holdenforth diffidently asks – one what?
In recent years the public has been treated to a close view of the members of HMG and of their shadows in the opposition parties.
The melancholy thought arises – if these are the cream – what must be the calibre of the skimmed milk.
We noticed and were not surprised that the companies controlled by Sir Phillip Green had tried and failed to exploit the flaws in the furlough pay cut arrangements.
Were you surprised?
We noted the details of the enviable reward packages paid to senior BBC employees. These details have hardened our resolve not to buy a TV licence. We are uneasy that this may trigger conflict with the authorities – but – so be it.
In any balance sheet of human assets – old timers are liabilities, with the liability increasing with age.
The tsunami of gloomy news on a daily basis re-enforces a point made in a previous blog – that significant numbers of the aged would not be averse to shuffling off the mortal coil ahead of schedule – and I include myself in this category.
Just a thought – no need for all the palaver involved in a one way Dignitas ticket to Switzerland. A dose of Nembutal will do the trick.
“Life’s a tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing.” Macbeth
A useful mission statement for HMG under BoJo
Holdenforth could go on and on and on but you get the point. Who is going to do what and when to clean up the UK version of the Augean Stables?
Holden Forth 