“Just remember in the winter
Far beneath the bitter snows
Lies the seed that with the sun’s love
In the spring becomes the rose”
From “The Rose” as sung by Bette Midler
Thus the Rose emerging from the frozen earth, thus the remain cause emerging from the chaos of Brexit, aided and abetted by the downfall of the leading Brexiteers- four ex Prime Ministers – Cameron, May, Johnson and Truss, together with the ongoing contribution of the Brexit puppet master, Nigel Farage.
We at Holdenforth have been as constant as the Northern Star in our support of the remain cause.
The gist of our case was not that the EU was a flawless institution but that it was a most civilised institution to be welcomed after a millennium of war between the various European nation states, an era which ended with the most appalling slaughter in WW1 and WW2.
A brief history of the Brexit struggle.
“A story has no beginning or end: arbitrarily one chooses that moment of experience from which to look back or from which to look ahead”
Graham Greene, The End of the Affair
- Ahead of the 2015 General Election David Cameron committed the Tory Party to a referendum on our membership of the EU by 2017. This rash commitment was made to ward off the threat posed by Nigel Farage to the right flank of the Tory party.
- In the General Election held on July 28, 2015, the Tories secured a comfortable working majority in Parliament. On the debit side for Cameron: he had to spend much of his time between July 2015 and the fateful referendum day, June 23, 2016 advocating that the UK REMAIN in the EU.
- June 23, 2016 – In/out referendum held and narrowly but convincingly won by the Brexiteers – 52% to 48%. Cameron resigned on the same day
- A few weeks later, Mrs May, previously a lukewarm Remainer, became Prime Minister and, significantly, committed to implement the result of the referendum.
- June 8, 2017 – An ill-judged decision by Mrs May to hold a general election to strengthen her position achieved precisely the opposite – a Tory majority lost. From that date onwards Mrs May faced an uphill struggle to implement Brexit.
- May 23, 2019 – Mrs May resigned as Prime Minister after losing the confidence of her colleagues in parliament. She was replaced by Johnson on July 23. There followed four months of boisterous activity by Johnson to get Brexit done – a highly effective slogan which did much to secure
- the approval of parliament.
- December 12, 2019 – The Tories, led most effectively by Johnson, won the general election with an overall majority over all other parties of 80. Their success was especially notable in the Red Wall seats – seats previously held by Labour which transferred their allegiance to the Tories.
- The following 30 months were dominated by the Pandemic and by – how shall we say – the eccentric and erratic handling by Johnson of the levers of political power.
- July 22, 2022 – Johnson obliged to walk the plank by his colleagues – Gosh – as recently as that.
- September 5, 2022 – Liz Truss emerged as the winner after a painfully protracted election process
- October 20, 2022 – Liz Truss walked the plank after a series of blunders without parallel in our long parliamentary history
A key point at this stage in our argument. From June 23, 2016 to date most politicians and most media commentators accepted that the Brexit cause was not to be reversed or even challenged and accordingly exulted in or mourned the outcome according to taste.
The way forward would be to exploit the clear opportunities afforded by Brexit.
Not so Holdenforth – from June 2016 to date we have argued that the Brexit project would end in tears – and so it has come to pass.
A word about the Farage Factor
Most observers would accept that Nigel Farage was and remains the prime mover in the electoral triumph of the Brexiteers and in what has happened since then on the Brexit front. Certainly Farage himself has made this claim over and over again in his new and very effective TV channel GB News.
As I write this blog , Farage, despairing of the failure of the past four Prime Ministers to implement the Brexit policy that was successful in the referendum, has embarked on an effective campaign to halt and reverse the uncontrolled influx of illegal immigrants, while excoriating just about everyone associated with attempts to do so.
The main targets of the abuse that comprise his stock in trade are The French and the successive hopeless Tory Prime Ministers and Tory home secretaries charged with solving the problem.
Holdenforth would like to point out that no one did more to antagonise the Senior Officials within the EU in general and with The French in particular.
Let us put the matter thus – The problems created by the large numbers of illegal immigrants arriving in the UK were to a very considerable extent created by Farage as he attacked everything associated with the EU Project. He is trying to argue that he is fighting the good fight to shore up the chaos created by others.
The truth is that he is flailing to around to cover his own tracks.
The deluded UK public is having to live with the consequences of the Farage-inspired Brexit folly.
Farage now resorts to slogans of increasing vacuity as he attempts to shore up the tattered remains of his mendacious crusade.
The enemies of Brexit are seen as globalists, a term about as useful as baddies.
So there we have it – a succession of Tory leaders starting with Cameron and on to May, Johnson, Truss and for the moment Sunak all resolved to continue the policy of throwing good money after bad as they pursue the busted flush that is Brexit.
What gives we Remainers hope now that the Brexit case will be reversed and that the UK will sooner rather than later return to the EU fold?
“Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them”
The words of Jesus at the end of his Sermon on the Mount. Matthew 8,20
Holdenforth suggests that the collective fruits of Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Farage with regard to Brexit have been – how to put it – suitable only to be sent to the dustbin of history.
“Project Fear is back – and it’s as wrong as ever”
Headline above a column by Robert Tombs in The Sunday Telegraph, 29/10/22
Above the column is a photograph of Guy Verhofstadt and like-minded colleagues addressing a public meeting in London “calling for the UK to rejoin the EU.”
In his column the Prof goes through the pro-Brexit arguments ans not unsurprisingly concludes that the case for Brexit is as strong as ever.
Holdenforth remains firmly in the Remain camp, is confident that sanity will prevail, and that the UK will rejoin the EU sooner rather than later.
An apology from HMG for the Brexit fiasco to the EU would be a good start.
“Brexit needs re-working to avoid bailout, tycoon warns”
Times headline (October 25, 2022) above a piece setting out the views of billionaire financier Guy Hands about the need to renegotiate Brexit
Mr Hands, a private equity tycoon and a long-term Conservative supporter, is critical of the performance of HMG under the Tories in recent years. He urges the current HMG to renegotiate Brexit.
Holdenforth suspects that the EU leaders faced with such a preposterous request would inform HMG that the arrangements which prevail in the EU are the rules – take them or leave them – but please don’t waste any more of our time.
“Frost: EU judges must keep out of Northern Ireland”
Headline above a report in the Daily Mail, October 12, 2022
A stern warning issued by Lord Frost from that most democratic of political institutions, The House of Lords.
Holdenforth would like to see a protracted period of silence from this particular source.
“Countless moderate Leavers envisaged a continuing warm and mutually beneficial relationship with Europe and many previously ardent Brexiteers now know that they were sold a pup”
Extract from a letter to The Times on October 25, 2022 from Mark Starling
Well put, Mark. Holdenforth gladly seconds this comment.
Prospects for the Remain cause doing a Lazarus and prevailing.
Holdenforth believes that:
- Sanity will prevail in the UK and that the UK WILL rejoin the EU.
- Wagers made at the outset of the Brexit project ought to be re-assessed, given the ongoing collapse of Brexit.
Holden Forth 