After the Summit

For the record, the summit meeting of the EU council was convened for the afternoon shift of Wednesday, April 10 – just two days before a possible no deal Brexit.

The meeting lasted well into the night shift thus testing the stamina of the leading players to the limit and edging ever closer to the deadline for the dreaded no-deal outcome.

Holdenforth was very anxious that this no deal outcome might come to pass. However we noticed that when the extension date of October 31 was announced, together with the associated terms and conditions, some commentators who had previously shared our concerns jauntily stated that they had always been confident that there would not in any circumstances be a no deal outcome.

This is known as hindsight.

The Council agreed that the UK departure date be delayed until October 31 to allow the UK to review and possibly modify its Brexit position in a way that would achieve the following:

• The deal would be approved by Parliament and be approved by the EU.
• There would not be scope for any revision of the existing May deal.
• The departure date of the UK could be brought forward in the event that the May deal secures the approval of parliament in the intervening period.
• The progress – or lack of it – by HMG in securing these two objectives to be reviewed by EU at the end of June.

What had Mrs May to say on emerging from the summit long after the midnight hour?

She was quick to voice her view, spoken more in sorrow than in anger,  that the House of Commons had failed both her and the country by refusing to endorse her Brexit deal.

In the course of her litany of reproach and regret she made it clear that her formidable energies will continue to focus on securing the departure of the UK from the EU on the basis of her deal. According to Mrs May, her deal represents the clear democratic wish of the British people to leave the EU.

(We at Holdenforth would add –  We’ll see about that.)

May believes that the departure – Brexit – should be orderly, and provide a sound basis for our future prosperity.

Holdenforth is pleased to use her words in a slightly different context as a statement of our preferred approach.

Holdenforth advocates an orderly smooth controlled departure of Mrs May from Number 10 in order to enable a start to be made on the gigantic task of rebuilding the fortunes of the UK on coherent policies.

Holdenforth continues to perceive Mrs May as a non swimmer floundering out of her depth above the vasty depths of the Mariana trench.

 What happens next?

“And time yet for a hundred indecisions
And for a hundred visions and revisions,
Before the taking of a toast and tea”

Thus TS Eliot outlining the concerns of  J. Alfred Prufrock; thus the partisans of the May deal as the UK approaches the end of the road.

There are just 6  months between now and the end of October.

Mrs May wasted no time in setting out her stall adorned with its depressing familiar produce. Undaunted by her dismal record of losing three votes out of three she will press on to deliver the Brexit referendum decision of June, 2016.

In her vision, or should we say plan, or maybe just her hoping for the best and apprehensive about the prospect of the worst, she will stay in post until:

1. Either her deal – the May deal – staggers over the line.

OR

2. There will be an extension to the extension after October 31 to allow for yet further indecisions and visions and revisions.

OR

3. The Remain cause prevails – either via a People’s Vote or a general election or both.

Holdenforth has favoured outcome 3 from the outset.

Mrs May spoke only about overcoming the obstacles to her preferred outcome and refused to contemplate other possibilities.

What about the other big players in the Brexit black farce?  What about the main opposition Party?

Well – what about the main opposition party?

What party might that be?

Mr Corbyn is said to be playing his cards close to his chest in the belief that he should keep all his options open until the last moment.

He may well be right, but his critics argue that he is too occupied and indeed pre-occupied with more peripheral matters such as the case of Mr Assange, the politics of the Middle East , and the politics of Venezuela – all doubtless worthy causes but felt by some UK voters to be a shade remote from more pressing local problems.

What about the Conservatives?

Significant numbers of Tory MPs are thought to be plotting or planning or merely hoping to succeed Mrs May in the near future as her administration draws to a close.

Holdenforth has no strong views on the matter other than to note the view of Dr Johnson – there is no settling the point of precedency between a louse and a flea. The odds for the various contenders are up on the board at your local bookie. Those under starter’s orders have one characteristic in common – all would be overstretched were they to secure election to the local community council.

Holdenforth fervently hopes that her successor will not be a no deal candidate. Don’t we have enough trouble as it is without a no deal politician in Number 10?

Meanwhile, members of the ERG have been written off a spent force by some commentators. Holdenforth is not so sure. They will be handicapped by their refusal to take part in the elections to the EU parliament – not easy to get your views across if you are sulking in your tent, but BOJO and Jake Mogg have both staying power and the essential requirement of thick skins.

And the Rest?

Mr Farage was out of his block like Usain Bolt – he launched his new party with both speed and enthusiasm and it is likely that this combination will bring its rewards in due course.

The new independents face an immediate problem in that, although a tiny group, they have to be sub-divided into the passionate apostate Tory Remainers as typified by the wonderful Mrs Soubry and the larger group of those who have deserted the Labour cause for reasons mainly associated with the perceived inadequacy of Mr Corbyn. Both sub groups face a punishing few months as they seek to project their separate identities.

A word about the forthcoming elections to the EU parliament

“It now seems almost inevitable that the UK will participate in elections to the European Parliament on May 23″
Times Leader, April 15, 2019

We can surely rely on the Times to be right on this tricky issue.

What IS clear is that these elections will proceed as per the EU rules in 27 out of the 28 current members of the EU. As I write the situation in the UK is less clear cut. Thus:

• As we have just observed, the nascent Brexit Party has made a flying start.
• The Tories are facing the worst of all possible worlds in that they are in the main unenthusiastic about the elections but are resigned to contesting them. This is not a policy calculated to persuade voters to  support them.
• The Labour Party – prospects as for the Tories but with rather more ambiguity as to its policy.

It is a rum prospect – free and fair elections, universally proclaimed as the life blood of democracy, contested without enthusiasm, a gap which may well be detected by the voters.

A word about our 73 MEPs who represent the UK.

We at Holdenforth  have been struck by the ongoing reluctance of this group to enter the Brexit fray.

Two points to note.

• Mr Farage, an MEP,  has made more impact on the course of events than the other 72 put together.
• Holdenforth will go further – this group, with the exception of Mr Farage, make the Trappist Monk community seem like noisy chatterboxes. We suspect that their collective inactivity could be traced to a hope that the problem would simply vanish. Thus far – it hasn’t.

What does Holdenforth want to happen?

We want either a peoples’ vote or, better still,  a general election.

Sadly, located as we are on the margin of the fringe of the periphery – we are flummoxed on how to trigger one or other of these highly desirable outcomes.

Any suggestions?

Closing points

To Holdenforth readers who fear that we Remainers are up against a powerful political machine – just think Mr Chris Grayling. There – you feel better already.

In some quarters there has been much talk about the failure of our political class to implement the Will of the People. Shall the Won’t of the politicians trump the Will of the people?

Holdenforth takes a simpler view – the cowardice of Mr Cameron – who he? – launched the Brexit people fiasco. The Brexiteers were more effective than the Remainers in the run up to the 2016 referendum.

Now is the time to recover our national reputation for calm common sense and civilised values and opt to remain in the EU.